October 6, 2023 Daily Grain Commentary
The mine explosion in the Black Sea has fizzled out, resulting in minimal damages. Grain and oilseeds closed lower as positions sure up heading into the weekend. The US Jobs report pressured the S&P this morning but rallied back. There were twice as many jobs added in this report than in the previous, easing pressure on interest rate hikes.
Corn– Argentina corn is facing pressure as they are missing much needed rainfall. Brazil has 2-7 inches of rain in the forecast, likely slowing corn planting down. French corn is 27% harvested, slightly behind the average pace. Technically, corn has been holding at or above the 40day moving average. Although corn has tested below the average, it has been closing above. Suppose corn were to close below the moving average. That would be not very encouraging to the market. Despite the softer change today, corn is up 15 cents from the previous week. See table below
| Weekly Change | CZ3 | CH4 | CK4 | Open Interest (Thurs) | ||||
| 10/6/2023 | $ 4.9200 | $ 5.0725 | $ 5.1525 | 1,358,033 | ||||
| 9/29/2023 | $ 4.7675 | $ 4.9175 | $ 5.0050 | 1,348,954 | ||||
| Change | $0.1525 | 3.2% | $0.1550 | 3.2% | $0.1475 | 2.9% | 9,079 | 0.7% |
Beans– Exporters hope that China will purchase beans when they return from holiday on Sunday night. Rain across the Midwest could be encouraging for the river levels, hopefully helping fright and basis ease in some places. Brazil is deep in soybean planting, and the beans are expected to be good with adequate moisture. Technically, beans are held just above the July lows, finding some support around 12.65. The chart below shows an average of a 10 cents loss across contracts for the week. One thing to note is that the open interest for beans is up significantly this week.
| Weekly Change | SX3 | SF4 | SH4 | Open Interest (Thurs) | ||||
| 10/6/2023 | $ 12.6600 | $ 12.8450 | $ 12.9925 | 819,524 | ||||
| 9/29/2023 | $ 12.7500 | $ 12.9450 | $ 13.1025 | 783,750 | ||||
| Change | ($0.0900) | -0.7% | ($0.1000) | -0.8% | ($0.1100) | -0.8% | 35,774 | 4.6% |
Wheat– Ukraine reported a 27.8% decline in grain exports since July 1st. Australia’s weather bureau says there are areas with increasing drought after reporting the driest September on record. Currently, Australia’s winter wheat is growing, posing treats to its production.
If you did not receive our Crop Progress Report this week, please visit /crop-progress-report/ to get signed up. There was a lot of good information regarding harvest progress, gap bill for the government shut down, and much more.
Kasey Baker
The DeLong Co., Inc.
815-823-2522
Kasey.baker@delongcompany.com
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