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October 23, 2023 Daily Grain Commentary

Kasey Baker
Daily Grain Commentary
Oct 23, 2023

Markets fought against Argentina news all day. Rain over the weekend in Argentina was a relief but did not fix their ongoing drought. On the other hand, Brazil missed rain, but the forecast now shows some rain in the forecast. The rain in the Midwest over the past week has started reflecting in river levels. The river levels are coming off their lows, creating more promise if grain can’t be shipped out of South America.

Corn– Corn is finding significant resistance at $5. Lighter than expected export inspections revealed 17.225 million bushels ship.

The week’s volume was on the low end of expectations and 23 million less than the needed pace to meet projections. Argentina is only 20% completed with corn planting, well behind the 33% 10yr average.

Crop Progress

  • Corn is 59% harvested, progressing 14% in the past week and 5% ahead of 5yr average

Beans– Bean on the export inspections had the opposite result for the week. The US shipped 90.426 million bushels last week. The stellar shipments were almost three times the needed pace to meet expectations. Brazil is 29% planted on soybeans, which is behind the average pace. The slow pace and the dry conditions are major concerns for the 2024 soybean crop.

Crop Progress

  • Beans are 76% harvested, 14% completed the previous week, and 9% ahead of 5yr average

Wheat– The Russian wheat prices have been declining, resulting in increased demand. So far, Russia’s exports for October are slightly behind last year’s monthly pace but ahead in previous months. Ukraine grain has been impacted by the lack of a grain trade agreement since July. Wheat shipments are down 7%, barely 33% lower, and corn is down 46% from “normal” shipping.

Crop Progress

  • Winter wheat is 77% planted, planting 9% in the past week and 1% behind the 5yr average

Kasey Baker
The DeLong Co., Inc.

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