October 2, 2023 Daily Grain Commentary
Corn, beans, and wheat all closed higher today. Corn and wheat gained a decent chunk while beans traded sideways. Over the weekend, the government crisis was averted for 30 more days. A short-term patch, a “stopgap funding bill,” was approved as negotiations continued. Harvest progress and pending export sales were just some topics of discussion today.
Corn– Corn started the day with another USDA announcing a corn sale to Mexico, adding to their already heavy books of purchases. Ukraine’s exports of corn are down 44% for the current marketing year. US corn harvest is progressing, with 23% harvested, 2% ahead of the 5-year average. Corn is 82% mature, improving by 12% from the previous week.
Beans– China finally made a soybean purchase after a quiet stretch. The price shift lower is likely advantageous for sale as China purchased during their latest holiday break. However, the Mississippi River continues to reach new lows, causing river basis to widen, making it more expensive for products to get to China. Surprisingly, beans are only 23% harvested, 2% behind industry expectations. 86% of beans are dropping leaves, well ahead of the 5-year average.
Wheat– Ukraine’s temporary corridor has helped the freight rate diminish by 30-40%. With the safe passage, vessels of grain and iron have been going to China, Egypt, and Spain. There has been some chatter of Chinese inquiring about wheat offers, but no confirmation of sale yet. Meanwhile, India is experiencing its driest weather in a century, putting pressure on the wheat supply. Winter wheat is 40% complete, 3% behind the 5-year average.
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