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October 10, 2023 Daily Grain Commentary

Kasey Baker
Daily Grain Commentary
Oct 10, 2023

USDA October WASDE Report set to release 10/12/2023 at 11 am CST 

Corn– Narrow trading range for corn today, moving in a 4 cent window. December and March corn lost 2.25cents closing at 4.86z and 5.01 ½ h. Corn export inspections were on the low end of estimates at 21.674 million bushels shipped. Export volume was merely half the volume needed to meet this year’s estimates. CONAB estimates a lower corn crop for 2023/24, projecting a 4.8% decline in acres.

Crop Progress

  • US Corn is 89% mature, 82% the previous week. 85% 5yr-avg
  • US Corn is 34% harvest, 23% previous week, 31% 5yr-avg

Beans– Beans spent most of the day lower but perked up at the close, picking up 8.5 cents in the November contract closing at 12.72 3/4. January is up 8 cents at 12.90 ½ futures, and March is up 6 cents at 13.02 ¼. Outstanding export inspection numbers lead beans higher. The US shipped out 38.106 million bushels in the previous week, 14 million more than the last inspection and 3 million more than the year prior. Beans exceeded their “need” volume to meet expectations. CONCAB forecasts a record bean production, with acres up 2.5%. Record production could be complex with more drought headliners; “Severe drought in the Amazon rainforest has disrupted river traffic near its largest city, increasing shipping costs for northern routes and posing a risk to corn exports in the coming months. The drought’s impact is particularly concentrated west of Manaus, affecting logistical routes critical to Brazilian grain exports.”

Crop Progress

  • US Beans are 93% dropping leaves, 86% the previous week, 87% 5yr-avg
  • US Beans are 43% harvested, 23% the previous week, 37% 5yr-avg

Wheat– Wheat fell today, losing 14.5 cents in the December SRW wheat contract to 5.58 ¼. July 2024 lost 13c, closing at 6.27 ¾. Wheat export inspection fell below expectations and the needed pace, only shipping 9.746 million bushels. There is more tension in the Black Sea. Russia launched 36 drone attacks on Ukraine, targeting the Odesa Port. Ukraine was able to destroy all but 9 of the drones.

Crop Progress

  • US Winter Wheat is 57% planted, 40% previous week, 57% 5yr-avg
  • US Winter Wheat is 29% emerged, 15% previous week, 30% 5yr-avg

Kasey Baker
The DeLong Co., Inc.

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