November 6, 2023 Grain Commentary
Market Re-Cap 11/6/23
Markets have been on a roller coaster over the last several trading sessions. Corn is holding steady while beans pick up good gains. Weather in South America, a pickup in demand, and reports are at the forefront of the support today.
Corn– Steady Eddy corn reached a new lows in the December contract last week, then mustered up the energy to find support above 4.70. Today started with another corn sale to Mexico. Corn export inspections from last week were at 21.069 million bushels, towards the top end of the estimate and more than double the previous year. However, the corn market has not gotten too excited with the trade expectation of a production increase on Thursday’s WASDE report. The average guess is a 0.8 bushel increase, putting the yield at 173.8bpa. Although not true of all regions, the US corn harvest is 81% complete, 4% ahead of the five year average
Beans– Beans moved lower but rebound with a 5-day streak of higher prices. Brazil beans have reached 47% planted; while a decent amount of acres were planted in the last week, bean planting needs to catch up. November 2024, beans went over 13.00 for the first time since August. Beans saw some results of last week’s rumors, starting the week with a new crop sale of beans to China. The banter of cancelations of beans from South America with a change of destination to the US was great support for today’s gains. With active China and the report expectations, markets are supportive. In the past week, bean export inspection were at 76.69 million bushels shipped, 57mb going to China. On the WASDE report, it is expected the bean yield will decline by half of a bushel, putting the average guess at 49.6bpa. If this estimate holds, it will be the lowest yield since 2011. Today, US beans are 91% harvested, 5% ahead of the average pace.
Wheat– Winter wheat is 47% good to excellent condition; this is 3% behind the expected rating. Winter wheat is 90% planted, 1% ahead of the 5-year average. Nice weather, though the last week has wheat at 75% emerged, emerging 2% ahead of the 5-year average.
The DeLong Co., Inc.