DeLong Commentary

Midday Grain Update

11:54a

🔴 Corn: Markets perked up slightly overnight but have spent most of the session in the red. July 2026 is sitting at $4.41, down 2.5¢, while December 2026 is trading at $4.68, down roughly 4.5¢ and sitting in risky downside technical space.

🔴 Beans: Nearby soybeans are bearing the brunt of the losses, with July 2026 shedding 12.5¢ to $11.68. New crop November 2026 is trading 6.75¢ lower at $11.82.

🔴 Wheat: Wheat is following suit with continued losses across the board. July 2026 has shaved off 6.75¢ to $6.02, while July 2027 is also well off its earlier highs at $6.69.

Headlines

Crop Ratings Disappoint

Monday’s crop progress report came in worse than expected across the board, yet grain markets opened lower this morning as peace deal optimism continued to overshadow domestic supply concerns. Corn ratings came in at 67% good to excellent, below the 71% five-year average and the worst start to June since 2019. Soybeans checked in at 66% good to excellent, the worst reading since 2023. Spring wheat fell to 47% good to excellent, a full 10 points below the five-year average, largely driven by dryness across the Northern Plains. Winter wheat conditions remain at historically poor levels. The market’s muted response is a reminder that June ratings carry limited correlation to final yield. Nevertheless, the trend is worth watching. Three consecutive weeks of below-average ratings across multiple crops, combined with a drier forecast pattern developing in the northern belt, sets the table for the weather market that typically dominates mid growing season.

Australia Cuts Wheat Forecast 

Australia released its 2026/27 wheat production forecast at 26.7 MMT, down 26% from last season. Planted area is expected to fall to 10.9 million hectares, the lowest since 2019/20 and a 12% decline from last year. Two factors are driving the reduction. Elevated fuel and fertilizer costs tied to the Iran conflict are making production economics difficult for Australian farmers, while dry weather is limiting planting potential in key growing regions. Canola area is seen down 6% to 3.5 million hectares, while barley is the lone bright spot, up 4% to 5.0 million hectares. Between record poor U.S. winter wheat conditions, EU crop downgrades, and now a sharply lower Australian outlook, the global wheat supply picture heading into 2027 seems like a story worth watching

Export Demand Active

Physical demand showed up in multiple forms overnight. South Korea’s MFG and FLC each purchased a corn cargo at approximately $264 per metric ton C&F for September and October shipment, both optional origins. Jordan’s state grain buyer received participation from four trading companies on a 120,000 MT wheat tender, with a purchase decision expected today. On the quality side, China issued a lodging alert for key winter wheat producing regions including Henan, where farmers are rushing to harvest ahead of deteriorating conditions. That development carries two implications — near-term quality issues could reduce milling wheat availability domestically while increasing feed wheat supply, which may in turn temper Chinese corn import demand as feed wheat flows into those channels. Active buying from Korea and Jordan alongside China’s crop stress signals that global demand for U.S. grain remains present even as futures markets trade lower for unknowing reason.