DeLong Commentary

Midday Grain Update

🔴 Wheat: Wheat is currently down 15 cents on the July 2026 contract after trading as much as 21 cents lower earlier in the session, despite the production concerns outlined below.

🔴 Corn: Corn is trading 7.5 to 12.5 cents lower across the board. July 2026 futures are at $4.69, while December 2026 is trading near $4.90 and December 2027 continues to test the $5.00 level.
🔴 Soybeans: Soybeans are also under pressure following oil, trading 15.25 to 20 cents lower. July 2026 futures are at $11.92, with new crop November 2026 at $11.73.

 

Headlines:

Geopolitical Shift 

Markets are reacting to a significant shift in the Iran situation, as the U.S. and Iran are now reviewing a 14-point draft framework aimed at ending the conflict and moving toward formal negotiations.

This marks the closest progress toward a potential resolution since tensions escalated earlier this year, with Iran expected to respond within the next 24–48 hours as China has stepped in, support the peace agreement.

While no agreement has been finalized, markets are beginning to price in a lower probability of continued disruption, increasing headline-driven volatility in the near term.

Energy Markets Reverse Lower on Peace Developments

Crude oil has pulled back sharply following the latest developments, with prices falling as much as 10% on reduced geopolitical risk.

Markets move from pricing in supply disruption toward the possibility of normalized shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Weekly EIA data showed declines in U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate stocks, while ethanol production increased slightly. This provides mixed signals, but overall energy markets remain sensitive to geopolitical headlines.

Wheat Production Concerns Remain in Focus

Wheat should see underlying support from production concerns, particularly in the Southern Plains, however is pulling lower with the rest of the commodities.

Oklahoma winter wheat production is projected near 47.8 million bushels, the lowest since 2014, with drought and disease pressures continuing to impact crop conditions across Oklahoma and Texas.

These supply-side concerns remain a key factor in the wheat market, even as broader commodity markets react to outside influences.

Yield 365 Idea:

Even on lower days, offers remain important—especially when you’re busy doing what you do best.

Using past highs as targets can be a helpful guide, but it’s important to remember that markets don’t always repeat themselves.

See charts below for July 26 Wheat, Dec 26 Corn and Nov 26 Beans

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Report Calendar

M	TU	W	TH	F	UP NEXT
Export Inspections Crop Progress	—	EIA Ethanol	USDA Export Sales Drought Monitor	CFTC Fund Report	WASDE on 5/12

 

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Kasey Baker

Yield 365 – Grain Marketing Simplified
Call: 815.823.2522