DeLong Commentary

Midday Grain Update

11:38 AM CT

🔴 Corn: Corn is lower across the board, down 7 to 9 cents on the session.

🔴 Beans: Beans are following suit, also trading 7 to 9 cents lower across contracts.

🔴 Wheat: Wheat is the hardest hit this morning, shedding 13 cents across the board.

Iran MOU

Unconfirmed reports circulated Thursday evening that the U.S. and Iran reached a memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire another 60 days. Iran would maintain uranium enrichment rights and must remove mines from the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days of signing. Trump says he wants time to think. Iran says the deal is not yet complete. Even if signed, expect a slow road to normalcy — ship captains will be cautious, infrastructure needs rebuilding, and the global crude deficit near 14 million barrels per day will take months to meaningfully close.

Soybean Flash Sale and Export Sales

At 8 AM the USDA announced flash sales of 192,000 MT of soybeans to an unknown destination — 60K old crop and 132K new crop. The trade is reading unknown as China. Weekly export sales were mixed with corn coming in at 40 million bushels old crop and 24.4 million new crop, soybeans at 11 million and 5.1 million bushels respectively, and soybean meal solid at 304K and 137K MT. Wheat saw old-crop cancellations of 29.7 million bushels as destinations rolled to new crop ahead of the May 31 marketing year end, with new crop wheat sales a bright spot at 38.9 million bushels.

Argentina Harvest

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange pegged Argentina corn production at a record 64 MMT with harvest 35% complete. Soybeans came in at 50.1 MMT with harvest 85% done. New crop wheat planting is off to one of the fastest starts on record at 14% complete, though production is forecast at 21.3 MMT — down 23.4% from last season’s record due to elevated input costs.

China Approves 73 GM Corn Traits

China approved 73 genetically modified corn traits and one soybean variety this week. A quiet but meaningful signal of China’s continued push toward biotech adoption and long-term demand growth — good news for U.S. corn and bean producers watching the demand side of the ledger.

Geopolitical Picture Broadens

A Russian drone struck a residential building in Romania this week — the first confirmed direct hit on NATO territory since the start of the Ukraine war. NATO is sending investigators. Meanwhile Russia continues to project confidence, expecting 60 MMT in total grain exports this marketing year with wheat near 50 MMT and favorable conditions supporting the 2026/27 crop.

Let’s Talk!

Kasey Baker

Yield 365 – Grain Marketing Simplified
Call: 815.823.2522