DeLong Commentary

Midday Grain Update

11:00a

🔴 Corn: Corn is trading 2 cents lower across the board. July 2026 is sitting at $4.55, with December 2026 breaking below a key support level at $4.80.

🟢 Beans: Soybeans have reversed early session losses and are pushing higher, adding 3 to 4 cents. July 2026 is trading at $11.89 with November 2026 at $11.84.

🔴 Wheat: Wheat is under significant pressure with double digit losses across contracts. July 2026 has shed 11 cents to $6.24, with July 2027 also down 11 cents to $6.86.

Headlines:

 Crop Progress

This week’s crop progress report came in below trade expectations across the major row crops, though the overall planting pace remains healthy. Corn reached 86% planted against an expected 89%, matching last year’s pace and tracking ahead of the 83% five-year average. Soybeans hit 79% complete versus an 82% expectation, running ahead of both last year’s 75% and the 68% average. Spring wheat came in at 86% planted, just one point shy of the 87% expected and matching last year while outpacing the 79% average. The market will need to wait until next week’s report for the first condition ratings on corn, soybeans, and spring wheat. Winter wheat remains the headline concern. Conditions slipped to 26% good/excellent, below the 28% expected and a significant step down from 50% a year ago. HRW held steady, SRW edged slightly higher, while white wheat conditions declined. The overall planting picture is not alarming, but winter wheat continues to deteriorate at a pace that deserves attention.

Funds Trimming

Managed money was a net seller across most grain markets on Tuesday. Corn funds shed an estimated 10,000 contracts, bringing the net long to approximately 259,000. Soybeans saw 3,000 contracts liquidated, dropping to roughly 198,000 net long, while SRW wheat funds added to their net short position now sitting at approximately 18,300 contracts. On the demand side, EU trade data adds an interesting layer. European wheat exports are running 6.4% ahead of last year and barley exports have surged 83.6%, reflecting strong global demand for European grain.

Crude Under Pressure

Grain and oilseed markets followed crude oil lower again overnight as peace deal optimism continues to weigh on energy prices. Overnight WTI was trading near $89 per barrel and Brent near $95, both well off recent highs. The U.S. and Iran remain at a standoff with the Strait of Hormuz still closed. The ceasefire is holding but there has been no meaningful progress toward a resolution. Until the Strait reopens, the global supply picture for energy and fertilizer remains constrained and price continues to do the work of rationing demand. This seems to be the story day after day.

 Report Calendar

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Kasey Baker

Yield 365 – Grain Marketing Simplified
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