DeLong Commentary

Midday Grain Update

10:51a

🔴 Corn: Corn is trading 2 to 4 cents lower while holding key support levels. July 2026 is hovering at $4.58, down 4.5¢, with December 2026 at $4.84, down 2.5¢.

🔴 Beans: Soybeans are also under pressure, down 4 to 6 cents across the board. July 2026 is down 6.75¢ to $11.89, with November 2026 shedding 5.25¢ to $11.82 as the inverse continues to narrow.

🔴 Wheat: Wheat is lower this morning, a notable move given the limited rainfall expectations that remain in the forecast. July 2026 has shaved off another 8.75¢ to $6.37.

Headlines:

 Iran Peace Hopes Collide with Reality

Grains and oilseeds opened lower this morning following energies, which sold off overnight on renewed peace deal optimism. The move came despite the U.S. conducting overnight military strikes against Iran, characterized as self-defense and aimed at preventing mine-laying in the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump indicated over the weekend that a deal is 95% complete, pushing equity markets to record highs. Iran would still need to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile and agree to a fully free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, two demands that have seen no meaningful movement. Markets are trading headlines. The fundamentals have not changed.

Export Demand Showing Signs of Life

Weekly export inspections for the week ending May 21 gave the market something to work with. Soybeans came in above the trade estimate range at 21.021 million bushels, with China showing up as a top destination through both Gulf and Pacific ports. While the weekly number was encouraging, cumulative year-to-date soybean shipments remain 339 million bushels behind last year’s pace, a gap that will require sustained Chinese buying to close. Corn inspected at 62.3 million bushels, solidly within the trade estimate range, with Mexico and South Korea leading destinations. Year-to-date corn is now running 519 million bushels ahead of last year. Wheat came in on the low end of estimates at 13.5 million bushels with just one week remaining in the marketing year, though cumulative shipments are still 80 million bushels ahead of last year’s pace. Physical demand is showing up. The question is whether it sustains.

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Kasey Baker

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