DeLong Commentary

Midday Grain Update

11:18am

🔴 Corn: Corn is down double digits this morning, blowing through near-term key support. July 2026 is trading 11.5¢ lower at $4.64, with December 2026 following at $4.87, down 10.5¢.

🔴 Beans: Soybeans are matching corn’s losses almost cent for cent. July 2026 is down 10¢ at $11.99, with November 2026 shedding 9.5¢ to $11.93.

🔴 Wheat: Wheat has clawed back from its worst levels of the session but remains under pressure. July 2026 is trading 7¢ lower at $6.60.

Headlines:

Markets Lower on Iran Escalation

Grain markets sold off overnight following comments from President Trump indicating the U.S. came within an hour of restarting bombing campaigns against Iran. Corn and beans traded 4 to 7 cents lower into the open, with wheat showing slightly more resilience. Iran responded by warning it would expand the conflict beyond the Middle East if new strikes resume, while reiterating demands Washington has already rejected. Trump told lawmakers the war will end quickly and that Iran will not obtain a nuclear weapon. Uncertainty remains elevated and the market is reflecting it this morning.

China Trade Commitment Long on Promise, Short on Detail

China confirmed ag tariff cuts “in principle” following the Trump-Xi summit but offered no specifics on products or timing, and the $17B annual purchase commitment remains unconfirmed. What we do have is April import data showing China’s U.S. soybean purchases more than doubled year over year to 3.33 MMT, with total soybean arrivals up 40% to 8.48 MMT. The encouraging piece is that China is buying. The sobering reality is that 2026 U.S. shipments from January through April are still running 48% below last year’s pace. The commitment and the follow-through remain two very different conversations.

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Kasey Baker

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