DeLong Commentary

Midday Grain Update
11:23

🟢 CORN: Post-report corn traded 1 to 4 cents higher before fading back toward unchanged. High post-report trade reached 5.02 on Dec ’26 corn, while Jul ’26 corn peaked at 4.81.

🟢 BEANS: Post-report beans traded 11 to 14 cents higher, holding most of the gains through midday. Jul ’26 beans are sitting at 12.25 ¾ while Nov ’26 beans traded  at 12.08.

🟢 WHEAT: Post-report wheat initially traded 22 to 26 cents higher but continued extending gains through midday. Jul ’26 SRW wheat is now up 42 ½ cents at 6.75 ¾, while Jul ’27 wheat pushed to new highs near 7.22 ½.

Headlines:

Grain markets pushed sharply higher following today’s USDA WASDE report, with wheat leading the rally after USDA projected significantly tighter U.S. and world grain stocks than traders expected.

🌾 Wheat Leads the Market

Wheat was the clear leader as several USDA numbers came in well below trade expectations:

• 2026/27 U.S. wheat ending stocks at 762 mb
•  2026/27 world wheat ending stocks at 275.04 MMT

USDA also cut U.S. wheat production to 1.561 bb, driven largely by sharply lower HRW output.

Combined with worsening Plains crop conditions, wheat strength is increasingly being viewed as a structural supply story rather than just speculative weather buying.

🌽 Corn Quietly Supportive

Corn futures reacted positively after USDA projected:

• 2026/27 U.S. ending stocks at 1.957 bb, above the average estimate
• 2026/27 world ending stocks at 277.54 MMT, well below trade expectations near 289.5 MMT

USDA estimated U.S.:

• Production at 15.995 bbu, higher
• Yield at 183.0 bpa, in line
• Exports at 3.15 bb, higher

While U.S. carryout came in slightly above average trade expectations, the market focused more heavily on tightening world inventories and continued strong export demand.

🌱 Soybeans Supported by Crush & Energy Markets

Soybeans rallied after USDA projected:

• 2026/27 ending stocks at 310 mb, near the low end of estimates
• Production at 4.435 bbu, lower
• Yield at 53.0 bpa, in line

That helped fuel strong gains in bean oil and meal:

• Meal: +2 to +3
• Oil: +75 to +100

🌍 Outside Markets Still Matter

Geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices continue supporting commodities broadly.

With Brent crude near $108/barrel amid escalating Iran tensions, markets remain heavily influenced by:

• Inflation trade
• Energy-linked commodity buying
• Biofuel demand expectations

Midday Takeaway

Today’s WASDE was broadly supportive across the grain complex:

• Wheat received the strongest bullish surprise
• Corn world balance sheets tightened more than expected
• Soybeans benefited from stronger crush and biofuel demand projections

 

 

 

 

Let’s Talk!

Kasey Baker

Yield 365 – Grain Marketing Simplified
Call: 815.823.2522