CBOT:
Corn closed 7-10 cents higher, drawing support from strength in ethanol markets following the US government’s announcement of a 60-day Jones Act waiver. The May 2026 contract led the move, gaining 9.5 cents to close at $4.6325. July and September contracts each added 9.25 cents, settling at $4.745 and $4.770 respectively. New crop futures closed 8.75 cents higher at $4.8975.
Soybeans closed 6-12 cents higher, supported by broader grain strength and a renewable volume obligation (RVO) risk premium. The May 2026 contract gained 6.75 cents to settle at $11.6175, while July added 7.75 cents to close at $11.765. The November new crop contract posted the session’s largest gain, climbing 11.75 cents to $11.415.
Market Headlines:
Iran’s security chief killed by Israeli strike:
Israel has assassinated Ali Larijani, Iran’s national security chief, the highest-profile killing of the conflict since Israeli and US forces killed Iran’s supreme leader on the war’s opening day. The following day, Israel claimed a second strike, killing intelligence minister Esmail Khatib.
Iran retaliated swiftly, firing two missiles into Israel and killing two people near Tel Aviv. Despite the losses, Tehran insists the strikes will not disrupt its operations. Foreign Minister Araqchi warned that the US and Israel underestimate the Islamic Republic, calling it a “robust political system that did not depend on any single individual.”
Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the former leader, has rejected proposals from intermediary nations to de-escalate, instead demanding that the US and Israel be “brought to their knees.”
The Fed holds interest rates steady:
The Federal Reserve concluded its two-day March meeting today, voting to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at its 3.5%–3.75% target range, a level it has held since December 2025.
The decision reflects a delicate balancing act. Surging oil prices, driven by the ongoing conflict in Iran, have reignited inflation risks just as the Fed was making progress toward its 2% target. At the same time, early signs of slowing economic growth are giving policymakers reason for caution on the other side.
With inflation concerns currently outweighing growth worries, rate cuts look increasingly unlikely in the near term. Markets now price in little chance of a cut before September at the earliest, pushing back expectations that had previously pointed to June.
Weekly EIA Ethanol Data:
US ethanol production fell to 1.093 million barrels per day (mbpd), landing at the bottom of market expectations of 1.086–1.150 mbpd. This marks a six-week low, down from 1.126 mbpd the prior week and 1.09% below the same week last year (1.105 mbpd). The four-week average, however, averaged 1.107 mbpd, above the 1.085 mbpd recorded during the same period last year.
US ethanol stocks came in at 26.407 million barrels, a 48-week high that came in well above the expected range of 24.600–26.380 million barrels, notable given the week’s production weakness. Stocks rose 3.23% from the prior week’s 25.580 million barrels, though remain marginally below year-ago levels of 26.575 million barrels (-0.63%). That year-over-year deficit has narrowed considerably in recent weeks.
US ethanol exports slipped modestly to 174,000 barrels per day from 188,000 bpd the prior week. Despite the week-over-week dip, the four-week average of 180,000 bpd remains well ahead of the 127,750 bpd recorded over the same period last year, a 41% year-over-year gain.
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