Grian Market Commentary 1/16/26
CBOT Pricing:
Corn posted gains of 2-6 cents. Corn was driven by short-covering and technical buying. The Mar26 and May26 contracts both finished 4.75 cents higher today, closing at $4.2725 and $4.3425, respectively. The Jul26 gained 4.25 cents, closing the day at $4.3975.
Soybeans also finished in the green after trading lower in the morning, ending 2-3.25 cents higher. The Mar26, May26, and Jul26 contracts all finished 3.25 cents higher to close at $10.53, $10.6425, and $10.795, respectively.
Market Headlines:
There will be no Sunday night or Monday Trade:
In observance of MLK Day, there will be no Sunday night or Monday trade. After today’s close, markets will reopen Monday night at 7:00 p.m. CST.
The Trump administration is getting ready to finalize their 2026 biofuel blending mandates:
Reuters reported that the administration is close to finalizing its biofuel blending mandates and is expected to keep biodiesel levels near the 7.12 billion RINs initially proposed last June. It remains unclear how many gallons will be equal to one RIN, but reports indicate the administration is considering a 5.2–5.6-billion-gallon target. This range would represent an increase from the 3.35 billion gallons of mandated usage in 2025.
Biodiesel produced from imported feedstocks would still qualify for RIN credits, despite earlier considerations that it would not. However, imported feedstocks would remain subject to Trump-era tariffs.
Prime Minister Mark Carney and Chinese XI Jinping reached a ‘landmark’ deal on tariffs:
The agreement allows up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter the Canadian market. In return, Canada expects China to reduce canola seed duties to 15% by March. The deal also removes tariffs on Canadian canola meal, lobsters, crabs, and peas from March through the end of 2026.
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe described the agreement as a “positive step forward.” Ontario Premier Doug Ford criticized the EV provision, stating that it gives China a “foothold” in the Canadian market at the expense of Canadian workers.
USDA Weekly Drought Monitor:
The Corn Belt experienced above-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation over the past week. These conditions led to improvements in Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, and parts of Illinois. Conditions also improved in northern Missouri, while the southern half of the state saw deterioration.
Conditions improved in southeast Nebraska and eastern Kansas, as much of the High Plains received precipitation during the past week.
US Areas Experiencing Drought:
Corn: 28%
Soybeans: 34%
Winter Wheat: 41%
Spring Wheat: 10%
Sugarbeets: 27%
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