DeLong Commentary

USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks:

Old crop corn stocks, as of September 1, 2025, totaled 1.53 billion bushels—227 million bushels higher than the most recent WASDE estimate but still 13% lower than a year earlier. This figure significantly exceeded market expectations, which had forecast a 24% year-over-year decline. Of total stocks, 643 million bushels were stored on-farm, marking an 18% decrease from last year, while off-farm storage held 888 million bushels, down 10% from the previous year. Corn disappearance during the June–August 2025 period reached 3.11 billion bushels, compared to 3.23 billion bushels in the same period of 2024.

US corn crop production for 2024/25 increased by 25 million bushels, bringing the total to 14.89 billion bushels. The national average corn yield held steady at 179.3 bushels per acre.

Old crop soybean stocks totaled 316 million bushels on September 1, 2025, reflecting an 8% decline from the previous year but surpassing market expectations, which had projected a 5.6% drop. On farm storage totaled 91.5 million bushels, an 18% decrease year-over-year, while off-farm storage accounted for 225 million bushels, a 3% drop. Soybean indicated disappearance during June–August 2025 rose 10% from the same period in 2024, reaching 691 million bushels.

US soybean production for 2024/25 rose by 7.74 million bushels, reaching 4.374 billion bushels. The national average yield remained unchanged from the previous estimate at 50.7 bushels per acre.

CBOT Pricing:

Corn closed 2 – 7 cents lower following a larger-than-expected increase in stocks. The Dec25 contract declined by 5 cents immediately after the report, having already shown slight weakness earlier in the session. It ended the day 6 cents lower at$ 4.16. Mar26 settled 6.75 cents lower at $4.3175.

Soybeans posted losses of 9 – 11 cents, as concerns over demand prospects outweighed any potential support from a small reduction in supply. The Nov25 contract reached a session high of $10.0925 at the time of the report release but later moved lower, finishing at $10.0075, down 9.75 cents from the previous close.

Market Headlines:

USDA Official Visits Taiwan to Advance Trade Talks

Luke Lindberg is visiting Taiwan this week to participate in the Agribusiness Trade Mission. Through Wednesday, he plans to meet with Taiwanese officials, engage with leaders from the US Meat Export Federation and Taiwan’s meat industry, and lead a roundtable discussion with US agricultural representatives. Taiwanese exports to the US currently face a 20% tariff.

Last week, Taiwan committed to purchasing nearly $6.4 billion worth of US corn and soybeans, and $10 billion in total agricultural products over the next four years – an effort to ease tensions between the two countries as negotiations continue. However, Taiwan imported $3.8 billion in US agricultural goods last year alone, so the new commitment essentially maintains or slightly reduces recent annual purchase levels.

India Extends Export Incentive Scheme Through March 2026

On Tuesday, the Indian government announced an extension of its export incentive program, the Remission of Duties and Taxes on Export Products (RoDTEP), through March 2026. The scheme reimburses exporters for taxes, duties, and levies incurred during manufacturing and distribution. Exporters had urged the extension after former US President Trump imposed higher tariffs on Indian goods.

Upcoming Reports:

• Wednesday – 10.01.2025: EIA Ethanol Production at 9:30 am CST
• Thursday – 10.02.2025: Export Sales at 7:30 am CST
• Thursday – 10.09.25: October USDA WASDE at 11:00 am CST

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