DeLong Commentary

CBOT Prices:

Soybeans traded on both sides of the opening range today, ultimately posting gains of 1 to 3 cents. Support during the overnight session was attributed to news that Argentina’s government has reinstated export taxes on oilseeds.  The Nov25 contract ended the day at 10.12, 3 cents up from the prior settle, after trading between 10.065 and 10.17. The Jan26 contract ended 2.25 cents higher at 10.3075.

Corn made several attempts to retain strength from the overnight session, ultimately recording modest gains of 1 to 2 cents, led by the nearby contract. Support was partially attributed to larger-than-expected weekly export sales totaling 75.7 million bushels. The Dec25 contract settled 2 cents above the previous close at 4.2625, while the Mar26 contract finished 1.75 cents higher at 4.4275.

Market Headlines:

President Trump is planning to give proceeds from tariff revenues to farmers:

While answering questions during a press conference with Turkish President Erdogan, Trump stated ” We’re going to take some of that tariff money and give it to our farmers”. Agriculture secretary Brooke Rollins has said that the administration is considering an aid program modeled off the approach taken by the previous Trump administration.

The US is planning to provide Argentina with a $20 billion swap line:

The US will give Argentina 20 billion USD and in exchange Argentina will give the US Fed the same value in its own currency. Eventually, Argentina and the US will “swap back” the currency and Argentina will pay back interest as well. This is part of an effort to stabilize the peso and restore investor confidence. While the terms are still being negotiated, this announcement boosted the peso and lifted Argentine stocks and bonds.

Argentina reapplied its recently suspended commodity export taxes:

On Monday, Argentina announced it would suspend its commodity export taxes until the end of October or until exports total $7 billion. Last night, the $7 billion sales cap was reached after just two days. During these two days, China bought at least 20 cargoes of Argentine soybeans.

China mentioned the US in and soybean trade in a press conference:

A Chinese commerce ministry official signaled that future US soybean purchases depend on the removal of “unreasonable” US tariffs. On Monday, Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang met with political and business leaders from the Midwest and US and Chinese trade officials are meeting for technical trade talks about details related to trade issue already discussed in prior talks.

National Corn Growers Association has created a task force to identify ways to increase farm profitability:

This task force intends to find options to reduce production costs to align more closely with current commodity prices. Since peaking in 2022, average production costs have only fallen 3%, while corn prices have dropped over 50%.

Weekly Export Sales Data:

(week ended 9.18.25)

US corn export sales totaled 75.7 million bushels, exceeding market expectations of 39.37 to 70.86 million bushels. This brings total commitments for the 2025/26 marketing year to 1.014 billion bushels—up 75% from last year’s 580 million bushels and marking an all-time record high for the third week of September. To meet the USDA’s export projection of 2.975 billion bushels, weekly sales will need to average approximately 37.9 million bushels through the end of August 2026, which is below last year’s average of 44.5 million bushels per week. This week’s sales were primarily to Mexico, unknown destinations, Colombia, and Spain.

US soybean export sales came in at 26.6 million bushels, near the lower end of market expectations ranging from 23.6 to 62.9 million bushels. Sales during the first three weeks of the 2025/26 marketing year have averaged just 26.8 million bushels, compared to 57.1 million bushels during the same period last year, with no reported sales to China. Total commitments stand at 404 million bushels, down 37% from the same time last year and representing the lowest level in 17 years for mid-September. To reach the USDA’s export projection of 1.685 billion bushels, weekly sales will need to average 25.6 million bushels moving forward. This week’s sales were made to Taiwan, Mexico, Egypt, and unknown destinations.

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