Grain Market Commentary 9/24/25
CBOT Prices:
CBOT Prices for 9.24.25
Corn: Corn saw losses of 1 to 2.5 cents. The Dec25 contract began the day session near the high of 4.275 and trended lower throughout the session, closing at 4.24. The Mar26 contract followed a similar path, finishing 2.25 cents lower than the previous settle at 4.4075.
Soybeans: Entering the biscuit break, soybeans and related products rallied after the U.S. Treasury Secretary commented on working with Argentina to end the suspension of the commodity export tax. However, immediately following the morning open, soybeans lost momentum. Despite another brief rally attempt, the Nov26 contract closed 3.5 cents lower at 10.085, while the Jan26 contract ended the day down 3.5 cents at 10.2825.
Market Headlines:
China purchased a large volume of Argentine soybeans after the country suspended its grain export taxes:
According to traders, China bought 10-15 cargoes for November delivery (Reuters reported overnight than total Chinese purchases are up to at least 20 cargoes this week). These purchases were made shortly after Argentina announced it would suspend its commodity export taxes until the end of October or until exports total $7 billion. It is likely that this business would have gone to the US if the trade war was not occurring – China has yet to purchase any US soybeans.
According to Argentina’s soy crushing chamber, the surge in Chinese purchases has sparked domestic concerns. This surge in exports has created a reduced local supply which has led to fewer Argentine jobs and reduced soybean export value.
The US Treasury Secretary commented that the Trump Administration will work with Argentina – including helping them end their commodity export tax suspension.
The USDA says it will soon roll out a plan to help rebuild to the US cattle herd:
In a statement regarding new world screwworm last week, officials said a plan is soon to roll out and intends to make beef prices stronger and keep food costs steadier. There are no details yet, but this plan could bring big changes for US cattle producers.
The US economy is facing two-sided risks:
Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that while employment risks are tilted to the downside, inflation risks are tilted to the upside. Powell shared no indication of whether he would support another rate cut at the October meeting or not. In addition, Powell noted that tariffs have pushed prices higher, be he expects that this is only temporary.
Weekly EIA Ethanol Data:
(week ended 9.19.25)
US Ethanol Production fell to a 19-week low of 1.024 million barrels per day (mbpd), within market expectations of 1.015–1.076 mbpd, and above the same-week production from a year ago of 994,000 barrels per day (bpd). Production over the last four weeks has averaged +1.8% compared to the same period last year but remains 2.3% below the +4.1% weekly average needed to meet the USDA’s estimate of 5.6 billion bushels of corn used for ethanol production.
US Ethanol Stocks were reported at 23.468 million barrels, exceeding market expectations of 22.285–23.200 million barrels. This marks an increase from the previous week’s 22.060 million barrels, reaching a 7-week high, though still below the same-week stock level from a year ago of 23.524 million barrels.
EIA Weekly U.S. Ethanol Production and Stocks
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