DeLong Commentary

USDA Crop Progress:

(week ended 9.21.25) 

Soybeans: The crop was rated 61% good to excellent, matching the lower end of the 61–63% expectation range. This is a 2% decline from the previous week’s 63% and slightly below last year’s rating of 64% good to excellent. Soybeans dropping leaves progressed to 61%, up from 41% last week and just above the 5-year average of 60%. Harvest has begun, with 9% of the crop harvested. It is up 4% from last week and consistent with the 5-year average of 9%, though short of the 12% expected.

Corn: The national good to excellent rating slipped to 66%, down 1% from the previous week’s 67%, aligning with average expectations. Corn at the dent stage reached 91%, matching last year, while mature corn stands at 56%, slightly below both last year and the 5-year average of 59%. Harvest is 11% complete. It is behind expectations, last year’s 14%, and the 5-year average of 13%.

CBOT Pricing:

Soybeans traded steadily lower throughout the day’s session, posting losses of 12 to 14.25 cents. The Nov25 contract dropped 14.25 cents on the day, closing at 10.1125—a price not seen since the August WASDE report. The Jan26 contract also fell 14.25 cents, ending the day at 10.305. This sell off was attributed to new of Argentina temporarily removing export taxes on all grain, included soybean oil and meal, until Oct 31 to boost dollar inflows.

Corn posted losses of 1 to 3 cents. Despite the downward movement, there was some late-session strength that helped limit the losses. The Dec25 futures contract settled 1.75 cents lower at 4.2225, while the Mar26 contract closed 2.2 cents down at 4.39.

Weekly Export Inspections:

(week ended 9.18.25)

US corn export inspections totaled 52.3 million bushels for the week, within market expectations of 43.3–65.0 million bushels, and slightly below the previous week’s 59.6 million bushels. Export activity has remained relatively strong early in the marketing year, averaging 56.2 million bushels per week over the first three weeks—well above last year’s average of 33.7 million bushels for the same period.

Cumulative corn inspections now stand at 138 million bushels, compared to 87 million bushels at this time last year. To meet the USDA’s full-year export projection of 2.975 billion bushels, weekly inspections will need to average approximately 53.2 million bushels moving forward. Major destinations this week included Mexico, Japan, and Colombia

US soybean export inspections came in at 17.8 million bushels, at the lower end of market expectations of 14.7–31.0 million bushels, and down from 30.2 million bushels the prior week.

Three weeks into the 2025/26 marketing year, cumulative soybean inspections have reached 58 million bushels, compared to 46 million bushels at the same point last year. To meet the USDA’s export projection, weekly soybean inspections will need to average around 31.9 million bushels—slightly below last year’s pace of 36.4 million bushels per week. Key export destinations this week included Egypt, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Mexico.

Market Headlines:

Trump Administration Considers New Farm Aid Package Amid Trade Pressures: 

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has indicated that the Trump administration may soon announce a new aid package for U.S. farmers, potentially funded by tariff revenue. The move comes as farmers face declining export demand and higher import costs. Notably, China has yet to purchase any U.S. soybeans for the 2025/26 marketing year, instead sourcing supplies from Brazil. The proposed bailout is expected to resemble the aid program implemented during the 2019 trade war.

S&P Global Forecasts Shift in 2026 U.S. Crop Acreage:

S&P Global is projecting a decline in U.S. corn acreage for the 2026 planting season, estimating 94.5 million acres—down 4.3% from this year. Conversely, soybean acreage is expected to rise by 3.6% to 85 million acres. In the current season, many farmers favored corn due to its stronger profitability outlook and perceived tariff protection. However, with renewed optimism around U.S.-China trade relations, S&P expects soybean planting to outpace corn next year.

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