DeLong Commentary

CBOT Pricing:

Soybeans saw losses of 8-12 cents. Soybeans traded mostly higher through the overnight ahead of President Trump’s phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. However, the lack of ag-focused headlines caused soybeans to weaken throughout the session. The Nov25 futures contract ended the day at 10.26, down 11.5 cents from the prior close. The Jan26 contract settled at 10.4525, a decline of 11.25 cents.

Corn also rallied early in the day sessions around the time of the call between Trump and Xi. The Dec25 contract, reached a session high of 4.275 early in the day, but the break in soybeans weighed on corn, causing the Dec25 to close only 1.75 cents higher at 4.255. The Mar26 contract settled at 4.4275, up 1.25 cents from the previous close.

Market Headlines:

The US will soon impose fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-operated ships docking at US ports:

This new rule from the US Trade Representative aims to curb China’s dominance in shipping and ship building. Fees will be highest for vessels built in China and that are operated by Chinese companies. Vessels that are built in China, but operated by foreign companies will still face fees, but at a lower rate. These fees will take effect on October 14th and are expected to remain in place long-term due to bipartisan support for increase US shipbuilding.

Grain shipments are unlikely to be significantly impacted as many of the bulk carriers that are used for grain shipments are at or below 80,00 DWT capacity. Bulk carriers at or below the 80,000 DWT capacity will be exempt from the fees (size exemption- any carrier at or below 80,00 DWT capacity is likely to qualify for a size-based exemption).

President Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping

Trump said he made progress on many issues including on trade and approval of a deal on Tik Tok in a call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. In addition, Trump stated, “the call was a very good one”, agreed to going to China during the early part of next year, Xi agreed to come to the US at an appropriate time, and the two will be meeting at APEC. Following these call headlines, soybeans began turning down.

As details of this conversation were slowly released, ag-centered headlines lacked. This lack prompted a notable sell-off in soybean futures contracts. 

USDA released its weekly drought monitor data on Thursday:

A majority of the US Corn Belt experienced above-normal temperatures and dry conditions last week. Due to this, drought conditions worsened, especially in eastern Ohio and Southeastern Missouri. 37% of the Corn Belt is facing some level of drought, up 17% from last week and 30% higher than three months ago. However, drought conditions have improved in northeastern North Dakota, southeastern South Dakota, and southwestern and eastern Kansas.

US Areas Experiencing Drought:

Soybean Areas in Drought 9.18.25

Corn Areas in Drought 9.18.25

Corn: 25%

Soybeans: 36%

Winter Wheat: 44%

Spring Wheat: 13%

Cattle: 23%

   Let’s Talk!

Yield365 – Grain Marketing Simplified

call: 815.823.2522

Click HERE to learn more

Click HERE to view previous market commentary