Grain Market Commentary 9/17/25
Chicago Board of Trade Pricing:
Corn
Corn futures contracts saw a loss of 2-3 cents today. After trading on both sides, the Dec25 contract lost strength through the day session to close 2.5 cents lower at 4.2675. The Mar26 contract closed 2.25 cents lower at 4.445.
Soybeans
Soybean futures contracts also posted losses today from 5-6 cents. The Nov25, Jan26, and Mar26 contracts all closed 5.75 cents lower to finish at 10.4375, 10.63, and 10.78, respectively.
Market Headlines:
A group of US senators from the Corn Belt have reintroduced the Fertilizer Research Act:
Senators Chuck Grassley of IA, Tammy Baldwin of WI, and Joni Ernst of IA are leading bipartisan legislation that aims to better understand the factors driving fertilizer costs. This legislation is endorsed by several farm groups including the National Corn Growers Association and American Soybean Association.
The EPA is now considering two proposals for the biofuel reallocation:
Option one would require 50% of the 2023-2025 waived blending requirements to be reallocated to larger refiners. Option two would require 100% reallocation during 2026-2027. Both of these options would increase demand and support farmers, crop processors, and biofuel producers.
US dollar fell yesterday amid expectations for a potential Federal Reserve rate cute this week:
The dollar hit a four-year low against the euro. Markets expect a 25-basis-point cut today and are awaiting a message from Jerome Powell. (Edit: The Fed cuts rates by 0.25% and projecting another 50% by year-end.)
Weekly EIA Ethanol Data:
(Week ended 9.12.25)
US Ethanol Production:
Production fell to 1.055 million barrels per day from 1.105 mbpd the previous week. This was a larger decline than market expectations of 1.070-1.115 million barrels per day and reflects the lowest production rate in 17 weeks. It is not uncommon for ethanol production to dip during the month of September, but production over the last 4 weeks has only been running +1% above year ago levels. This is well below the needed +4.1% average weekly production gain that is estimated to be needed throughout the 2025-26 marketing year to meet the USDA’s 5.6 billion bushels corn for ethanol usage estimate.
US Ethanol Stocks:
Stocks last week fell to 22.602 million barrels. This fall went against market expectations for a rise in stocks to 22.887-23.2 million barrels – this leaves stock 50 million gallon below this time last year (999 million gallons). US gasoline demand was slightly up from the previous week, coming in at 8.810 mbpd.
US Ethanol Exports:
EIA estimated US ethanol exports last week at 103k barrels per day, compared to the previous week’s 121k bpd. Exports over the last 8 weeks averaged 125k bpd, above last year’s 123k bpd during the same period.
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