Grain Market Commentary 4/9/26
CBOT:
Corn settled 1–4 cents lower, finding no support from an unchanged WASDE or crude oil, which continued to trade lower as US-Iran peace negotiations progressed. The May26 contract closed 3.25 cents lower at $4.44. Jul26 futures lost 3.0 cents to finish the day at $4.55, while the Sep26 contract slipped 2.5 cents to close at $4.5925. Dec26 futures closed at $4.7425, 1.75 cents lower.
Soybeans settled 0–4 cents higher. They closed in the green after trading higher overnight, fading during the day session, and rallying into the close. The May26 contract added 3.25 cents at $11.6525, while Jul26 futures closed 3.0 cents higher at $11.81. The Nov26 contract closed at $11.525, half a cent higher.
Market Headlines:
The US and Iran are set to begin peace negotiations in Pakistan:
Negotiations are set to begin soon, though both parties remain divided on several issues. President Trump agreed that Iran’s 10-point proposal could serve as a basis for peace talks. Still, the proposal shows little alignment with the US’s previously submitted 15-point proposal. Earlier talks centered on Iran’s nuclear enrichment and missile capabilities. Since then, discussions have shifted to the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil supply flows. A Pakistani official stated that Iran can expect several demands to be accepted, including reconstruction aid and sanctions relief, but should not expect an agreement on uranium enrichment.
Meanwhile, Lebanon has advocated for a temporary ceasefire to allow for peace talks with Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has instructed that negotiations with Lebanon should begin “as soon as possible.” A Lebanese official explained that talks would follow “the same model” as the US-Iran truce but would take a separate path. Lebanon has said the US will be needed as a mediator.
USDA Crop Production and WASDE:
Corn: The US corn balance sheet was unchanged from the previous month. The only adjustment was a 5-cent increase to the season average farm price, raised to $4.15. Unchanged ending stocks of 2.127 million bushels came in line with market expectations of 2.002–2.267 million bushels. Globally, corn ending stocks landed at 294.8 million metric tons. That result came in slightly above the previous month’s 292.8 million metric tons and within market expectations of 291.2–295.0 million metric tons. Production gains for India, South Africa, Indonesia, and Russia drove the increase.
Soybeans: The US soybean balance sheet saw offsetting changes that left domestic ending stocks unchanged at 350 million bushels. That result came in line with market expectations of 315–380 million bushels. USDA raised crush by 35 million bushels to 2.610 billion bushels on strong domestic soybean meal demand. At the same time, USDA cut exports by 35 million bushels to 1.540 billion bushels, reflecting the pace of shipments and competition from South American supplies. The season average farm price rose 10 cents to $10.30. Globally, ending stocks fell 0.5 million metric tons to 124.8 million metric tons. That figure landed at the low end of market expectations of 124.5–128.8 million metric tons, as lower ending stocks for Argentina, Brazil, and Egypt weighed on the total.
Weekly Export Sales Data:
(week ended 4.2.26)
US corn export sales totaled 57.21 million bushels, up from the previous week’s 45.25 million bushels. Sales fell within market expectations of 29.53–62.99 million bushels and marked the highest weekly total in four weeks. Additionally, the four-week average reached 48.23 million bushels, up from 44.24 million bushels over the same period last year. Total commitments stand at 2.810 billion bushels, 29.73% above last year’s same-week total of 2.166 billion bushels. By comparison, USDA’s 2025/26 marketing year export sales projection stands at 3.300 billion bushels. Primary buyers included Japan, Mexico, and unknown destinations.
US soybean export sales totaled 10.58 million bushels, down from the previous week’s 12.99 million bushels. Sales landed at the low end of market expectations of 7.35–22.05 million bushels. Meanwhile, the four-week average stood at 16.30 million bushels, up 39.32% from the same period last year, which averaged 11.70 million bushels. Total commitments stand at 1.393 billion bushels, down 17.87% from the same-week total of 1.696 billion bushels last year. Primary buyers included Japan and Egypt.
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