Grain Market Commentary 4/8/26
CBOT:
Corn settled just 1-3 cents lower after trading mostly in negative territory overnight. Ethanol settled only marginally lower despite sharply lower gasoline prices, seeming to lend support to corn. The May26 contract closed 1.75 cents lower at $4.4725. The Jul26 contract lost 2.0 cents ending the day at $4.58, while Sep26 futures closed 2.25 cents lower at $4.6175. Dec26 futures closed at $4.76, down 2.0 cents.
Soybeans traded sharply lower overnight, following crude oil, but trimmed losses throughout the session to finish 1-4 cents higher. May26 futures added 3.75 cents at $11.62, while the Jul26 contract closed 3.5 cents higher at $11.78. The Nov26 contract closed at $11.52, 1.0 cent higher. The trend in soybeans remains sideways.
Market Headlines:
Trump agrees to a two-week ceasefire with Iran:
The agreement came just hours before Trump’s deadline to begin striking Iran. The White House reported that discussions are underway about possible in-person talks during the ceasefire period. The agreement is subject to Iran allowing the flow of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump described Iran’s 10-point proposal as a “workable basis” for negotiations and expects a deal to be reached within the two-week window.
Oil prices fell on the news. Whether Iran will impose tariffs on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz remains unclear, which may keep oil prices elevated. Grain and soy futures fell alongside oil at varying levels. Soybeans recovered much of their losses, while corn and wheat remained lower.
Later in the session, Iran’s foreign minister told his Turkish counterpart that Iran accepted the ceasefire as a basis for a complete end to the war. He added that a resolution is possible if the U.S. demonstrates seriousness in the process.
Weekly EIA Ethanol Data:
(week ended 4.3.26)
US ethanol production averaged 1.116 million barrels per day, up from the previous week’s 1.075 mbpd and above market expectations of 1.080–1.095 mbpd. Production rose 3.81% week-over-week, going against the typical seasonal decline, and sits 9.30% above the same week last year. Over the last four weeks, production averaged 1.098 mbpd, 3.62% above the same period last year.
US ethanol stocks totaled 26.053 million barrels, edging higher alongside production from 25.991 million barrels the prior week, and landing within market expectations of 25.8–26.3 million barrels. Stocks remain 3.63% below last year’s comparable figure of 27.034 million barrels. Over the last four weeks, stocks averaged 26.405 million barrels.
US ethanol exports jumped to 203,000 barrels per day from the prior week’s 123,000 bpd. Over the last four weeks, exports averaged 154,750 bpd — 21.14% above the same period last year’s average of 127,750 bpd.
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