Grain Market Commentary 4/7/26
CBOT:
Corn settled 3-6 cents lower, with weakness in soybeans, favorable planting progress, and forecasted Midwest rainfall weighing on the market. The May 26 contract settled 5.0 cents lower at $4.49, while Jul 26 settled 5.25 cents lower at $4.60. Sep 26 futures settled 5.0 cents lower at $4.64. Dec 26 futures settled 5.0 cents lower at $4.78.
Soybeans settled 6-9 cents lower. Soybeans followed oil lower, though the market may continue to find support from uncertainty surrounding the Trump-Xi meeting through mid-May. The May 26 contract settled 8.5 cents lower at $11.5825, while Sep 26 settled 8.75 cents lower at $11.75. Nov 26 futures settled 6.0 cents lower at $11.51.
Market Headlines:
US-Iran talks continue:
On Monday, Iran rejected the United States’ temporary ceasefire proposal and instead offered conditions for “lasting peace.” Those conditions included an end to regional conflicts with a guarantee against repeated attacks, the right to impose fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and the lifting of sanctions. US leadership has continued to warn of larger strikes if a deal is not reached, including President Trump’s Tuesday night deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Talks between the two countries remain ongoing, with Pakistan serving as intermediary for proposal exchanges. Overnight, however, Iran struck Saudi Arabia, a country that holds a defense pact with Pakistan. Should Saudi Arabia enter the conflict, Pakistan would need to join Saudi Arabia’s war effort, effectively ending its mediator role and closing off the current channel for US-Iran peace talks.
After ag markets closed, Pakistan urged all parties to observe a two-week ceasefire. The proposal asks President Trump to extend the Iran deadline two weeks and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for the same period as a gesture of goodwill. Early reports suggest Iran is responding positively, and President Trump is considering the proposal.
USDA to release the April WASDE report Thursday, April 9 at 11:00am CST:
Average trade estimates point to minimal changes across US corn, soybean, and wheat balance sheets. That said, continued strong US corn export demand and soybean crush pace leave room for the USDA to make modest adjustments to demand figures and ending stocks.
President Trump aims for stability with China in the upcoming meeting:
US Trade Representative Greer described the current US-China trade and economic relationship as stable and noted that President Trump intends to keep it that way heading into the May meeting between the two leaders. Greer added that the US is not seeking a “massive confrontation,” but is instead focused on maintaining access to Chinese rare earths and preserving existing US tariffs on Chinese goods. US and Chinese trade officials are also working to establish a Board of Trade mechanism for the leaders to consider at their meeting. That structure would define what trade can occur without crossing national security thresholds.
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