Grain Market Commentary 4/6/26
CBOT:
Corn settled higher after opening the session lower, following energy markets upward into the close. The May26 contract added 1.75 cents to close at $4.5225. The Jul26 and Sep26 contracts closed 2.0 cents higher at $4.6325 and $4.6325, respectively. The Dec26 futures closed at $4.83, 1.75 cents higher.
Soybeans settled slightly higher, following soybean oil, which has been supported by strength in energy markets. The May26 and Jul26 contract both gained 3.25 cents to close at $11.635 and $11.80, respectively. Nov26 futures added 3.75 cents to close at $11.575.
Market Headlines:
US – Iran tensions grew over the weekend:
Tensions escalated after US special forces rescued an airman shot down over Iran. President Trump responded by issuing new threats, warning of strikes on Iranian infrastructure, including energy facilities and bridges, following a 48-hour window, extended to Tuesday night at 8:00 p.m. EST, for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated that a deal could be reached as soon as Monday, and overnight reports indicated progress on a potential peace agreement being brokered by Pakistan.
The US, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing a possible 45-day ceasefire that could lead to broader talks on ending the conflict. Iran’s foreign ministry responded quickly, stating that ceasefire negotiations cannot include ultimatums or threats. Monday morning, Iran formally rejected the proposed ceasefire, submitting a counter-response containing ten clauses. The clauses included an end to regional conflicts, protocol governing Strait of Hormuz passage, and the lifting of sanctions.
President Trump holds press conference after the rescue of a US airman:
President Trump, joined by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine, held a press conference at the White House to detail the rescue of a US airman. Last week, an F-15E was shot down over Iran. While crews rapidly recovered the pilot, the second airman had come down a significant distance away. Trump acknowledged the risk of the rescue operation; CIA Director John Ratcliffe noted that the president did not hesitate to authorize the mission to recover the missing airman.
Trump also addressed the broader conflict during the conference, threatening to strike the entirety of Iran and stating that “the entire country can be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night.” The remarks came as Trump’s 8:00 pm EST deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz approached.
Weekly Export Inspections:
(week ended 4.2.26)
US corn export inspections totaled 78.82 million bushels, well above market expectations of 51.20-72.83 million bushels. This figure represents a week-over-week increase of 6.50% from 74.01 million bushels and is the 3rd highest week of the current marketing year. Over the last 4 weeks corn export inspections averaged 71.39 million bushels, bringing cumulative export inspections to 1.908 billion bushels. This represents a 35.80% year-over-year gain from last year’s same week total of 1.405 billion bushels. The USDA’s corn export projection for the 2025/2026 marketing year is currently 3.330 billion bushels. Top export destinations were Mexico, Japan, and Colombia.
US soybean export inspections came in at 28.66 million bushels, above market expectations of 14.70-27.56 million bushels, and up 12.29% from the previous week’s 25.52 million bushels. Over the last 4 weeks soybean export inspections averaged 32.68 million bushels per week, above last year’s same period average of 28.48 million bushels per week. However, cumulative soybean export inspections till remain 26.26% below the previous year total of 1.528 billion bushels, at 1.127 billion bushels. Top export destination included China, Mexico, and Egypt.
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