DeLong Commentary

CBOT Pricing:

Wheat led the grain complex higher today, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and weather concerns.

Corn posted modest gains, finding support from strong export demand but remaining relatively range bound.

Soybeans were mixed on the session, struggling to keep pace with corn and wheat despite underlying biofuel support.

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Market Headlines:

Geopolitical tensions continue to support commodities

Markets remain focused on developments surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. While headlines have fluctuated between escalation and potential de-escalation, uncertainty continues to support energy markets and broader commodity prices.

Crude oil has held in the upper $80s to near $90 per barrel, raising concerns about longer-term impacts on fertilizer availability and input costs.

Wheat has been the primary beneficiary, with global risk and supply concerns providing underlying support.

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Fertilizer costs begin to influence acreage decisions

Pro Farmer Newsletter released an interesting segment stating “Rising fertilizer prices are starting to shift planting decisions, particularly for 2026”. Disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict have tightened global supplies, with roughly one-third of global urea trade moving through the Strait of Hormuz.

Input costs have surged alongside energy, with fertilizer availability becoming a growing concern both domestically and globally.

As a result, producers are expected to reduce fertilizer-intensive crops like corn, particularly on marginal acres, and shift toward soybeans where input requirements are lower.

This dynamic introduces longer-term uncertainty to corn production potential while reinforcing underlying support for wheat and other crops impacted by global supply concerns.

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Export demand remains a key driver

Weekly export inspections came in near the top end of expectations for corn, with marketing-year-to-date shipments running roughly 30%+ ahead of last year. Demand continues to exceed seasonal norms for mid-April.

Wheat inspections improved to an 8 week high, signaling steady demand despite ample global supplies.

Soybean shipments remained solid week to week, including continued movement to China, though totals still trail last year on a cumulative basis.

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Crop conditions and planting progress in focus

Trade expectations ahead of this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report point to continued deterioration in U.S. winter wheat conditions. Ratings are expected to come in around 33% good-to-excellent, down from last week and near the lowest levels for this time of year since 2023.

Drought remains a key concern, with a large portion of the winter wheat belt still under stress, helping support wheat prices on production uncertainty.

Planting progress is expected to show early-season momentum. Corn is projected at 11% planted, up from 5% last week, while soybean planting is seen at 12% complete, up from 6%.

Spring wheat planting is also expected to advance to 13%, reflecting generally favorable early field conditions across parts of the Northern Plains.

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