Grain Market Commentary 4/15/26
CBOT:
Corn settled 5–8 cents higher, drawing support from larger-than-expected ethanol production data released Wednesday morning. Strength in the soybean complex provided additional support. The May 2026 contract led gains, adding 8.25 cent to close at $4.5125. Jul26 futures closed 8.0 cents higher at $4.605, while the Sep26 contract closed 8.5 cent higher at $4.635. Dec26 futures closed at $4.785, up 8.0 cents.
Soybeanssettled 9–10 cents higher, pulling back from session highs but still posting solid gains. NOPA’s March crush report provided support, with crush coming in at a same-month record. The May26 contract gained 9.0 cents to close at $11.67, while the Jul26 contract closed 10.5 cents higher at $11.8325. The Nov26 contract closed 9.25 cents higher at $11.5325.
Market Headlines:
US blockade of Iranian seaports is ‘fully implemented’:
Late Tuesday, US Central Command announced the US naval blockade of Iranian seaports is now fully implemented. The blockade, which began Monday, involves more than 10,000 US troops along with approximately a dozen Navy ships and fighter jets positioned in the Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman. US officials stated the blockade is intended to prevent Iran from using the strait as leverage during the current two-week cease-fire. Vessels traveling to or from Iranian ports are subject to interception, while other regional traffic moves freely.
NOPA soybean crush report numbers:
NOPA members crushed 226.2 million bushels of soybeans in March, coming in at the low end of market expectations of 223.2–235.6 million bushels. Crush rose from February’s 208.8 million bushels, increased 16.24% from last year’s 194.6 million bushels, and fell just short of the all-time monthly record of 227.6 million bushels set in October 2025. Soybean oil production by NOPA members reached 2.644 billion pounds in March, up 8.72% from February’s 2.432 billion pounds and up 12.65% from last March’s 2.347 billion pounds. Soybean oil stocks came in at 2.039 billion pounds, below the average market expectation of 2.173 billion pounds, down from February’s 2.080 billion pounds, but well above the year-ago level of 1.498 billion pounds.
Weekly EIA Ethanol Data:
(week ended 4.10.26)
US ethanol production averaged 1.120 million barrels per day, a slight increase from the previous week’s 1.116 million barrels per day and at the top of market expectations of 1.066–1.126 million barrels per day. Production ran 10.67% above the same week last year. The year-over-year gain largely reflects an unusually steady production pace, as seasonal plant shutdowns have yet to begin in earnest. Over the past four weeks, production averaged 1.107 million barrels per day, 6.75% above the same period last year’s 1.037 million barrels per day.
US ethanol stocks totaled 26.699 million barrels, a build against seasonal trends from the previous week’s 26.053 million barrels, and finishing at the top of market expectations of 25.925–26.800 million barrels. Current stocks sit below the 26.814 million barrels recorded at this time last year, though last year’s early April stocks were at record levels.
US ethanol exports averaged 81,000 barrels per day, a 46-week low. The figure reflects a 60.09% decline from the previous week’s 203,000 barrels per day and a 40.88% drop from the same week last year. Over the past four weeks, exports averaged 131,500 barrels per day.
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