Grain Market Commentary 4/10/26
CBOT:
Corn settled 1–4 cents lower, marking the fourth consecutive losing session. Pressure from a break in crude oil, managed money liquidation, and a favorable US weather forecast weighed on the market, pulling corn 9–12 cents lower on the week. The May26 contract lost 3.0 cents to close at $4.41. The Jul26 contract closed 3.75 cents lower at $4.5125, while the Sep26 contract lost 3.0 cents to close at $4.5625. Dec26 futures lost 2.0 cents to close at $4.7225.
Soybeans settled 5–11 cents higher on the day and 4–13 cents higher on the week. Soybean meal provided support, lifted by an export sales announcement and stronger cash markets. The May26 contract added 10.5 cents to close at $11.7575, while the Jul26 contract closed 10.25 cents higher at $11.9125. Nov26 futures gained 5.25 cents, closing at $11.5775.
Market Headlines:
NOAA is forecasting a possible super El Nino:
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration places a 61% probability on an El Niño developing between May and July, with conditions expected to persist through fall or winter. El Niño refers to the periodic warming of water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon that can alter global weather patterns. NOAA assigns a 50% chance the event strengthens into a strong El Niño, and a 25% chance conditions intensify further to super El Niño status by fall or early winter.
Historical records show US corn and soybean yields are more likely to meet or exceed production trends during El Niño years.
US trade court evaluating the legality of the 10% global import tariff:
The Trump administration imposed new tariffs on February 20 under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The provision permits duties of up to 15% for 150 days on imports during periods of “large and serious US balance of payments deficits.” The tariffs took effect on February 24.
Twenty-four states, mostly Democratic-led, and two small businesses have filed suit to block the tariffs. The plaintiffs argue that Section 122 addresses short-term monetary emergencies and that current trade conditions do not meet the threshold the act requires. The US Court of International Trade is scheduled to hear arguments today, April 10.
Weekly Drought Monitor Data:
The US Drought Monitor recorded improved drought conditions across parts of the South, Plains, and Midwest following recent rainfall, while conditions degraded across the West, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic. Precipitation removed portions of Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio from the drought map, and conditions improved across parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana. Dry conditions persisted across the West, though mild rainfall was recorded in Oregon, California, Nevada, Montana, Wyoming, and New Mexico.
In the Midwest, conditions improved broadly across Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and Missouri. Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois saw the largest gains, where precipitation totals of 2–5 inches drove the most significant improvements. Above-average temperatures, ranging 2–15 degrees above normal, accompanied above-average 30-day rainfall totals across the region.
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