Grain Market Commentary 4/1/26
CBOT:
Corn posted losses of 2-4 cents, trading lower overnight and into the early morning before rallying into the close. EIA data offered support, but weakness in the energy complex kept prices down. The May26 contract lost 3.5 cents to close at $4.485. The Jul26 contract closed 3.25 cents lower at $4.65, while the Sep26 shed 3.0 cents, ending the day at $4.6725. Dec26 futures closed 3.0 cents lower at $4.8125.
Soybeans also trimmed losses into the close, finishing the day 1-3 cents lower. The May26 contract settled 2.5 cents lower at $11.685, while Jul26 shed 1.5 cents to close at $11.845. Nov26 settled 2.0 cents lower at $11.555.
Market Headlines:
President Trump is to deliver an “important update on Iran” tonight:
President Trump is set to deliver a prime-time address tonight at 8 pm CST. White House Press Secretary Karoline Levitt announced the speech on social media, saying Trump will “provide an important update on Iran,” but offered no further details.
Earlier Wednesday, Trump previewed the address, stating the US will be “out of Iran pretty quickly” without providing a timeline. Trump also indicated he plans to address NATO, saying he is “absolutely” considering withdrawing the U.S. from the alliance.
The USDA reports record-low acreage survey response rate:
On Tuesday, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the March 26 Prospective Plantings report. The report held few surprises, placing corn acreage above average market expectations at 95.3 million acres and soybean acreage slightly below at 84.7 million acres.
Just 37.6% of producers participated in the survey — the lowest response rate in its history. Agricultural Statistics Board Chair Lance Honig said the low participation may signal a trust gap between farmers and the agency, and that rebuilding that trust is critical, as accurate data helps give farmers a more level playing field in agricultural markets.
Weekly EIA Ethanol Data:
(week ended 3.27.26)
US ethanol production came in at 1.075 million barrels per day, below market expectations of 1.110–1.130 million barrels per day. The larger-than-expected decline likely marks the start of a seasonal pullback, reflecting a 3.81% week-over-week reduction from 1.116 million barrels per day and a modest 1.13% year-over-year increase. Over the last four weeks, production averaged 1.103 million barrels per day, compared to 1.071 million barrels per day during the same period last year.
US ethanol stocks fell sharply to 25.991 million barrels from 27.170 million the prior week, coming in below market expectations of 26.2–26.9 million barrels. The figure represents a 2.33% year-over-year deficit.
US ethanol exports edged higher to 123,000 barrels per day from 119,000 barrels per day the prior week, though the figure remains below the four-week average of 151,000 barrels per day.
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