CBOT:
Grains and oilseeds followed crude oil throughout today’s trading session. Markets gapped higher at the open before turning lower throughout the day session as energy prices reversed. President Trump commented that he “has a plan for everything” when referring to the oil shock and later announced he would hold a press conference at 5:30 pm EST today. Trade chatter suggests the president may address potential policy responses such as government intervention in futures markets, use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or possible export restrictions. His comments regarding the war and the upcoming press conference triggered selling in crude oil, which in turn pressured agricultural markets lower.
Corn closed the day 1-8 cents lower, following the decline in crude oil. The May26 contract closed 7.25 cents lower at $4.5375. Jul26 futures fell 5.75 cents to end the day at $4.655, while Sep26 futures lost 4.25 cents to close at $4.6825. New crop Dec26 futures declined 3.0 cents to finish at $4.8475.
Soybeans ended the day mixed, with nearby contracts posting losses of 0-5 cents. The market traded higher early in the overnight session before reversing and moving lower through most of the day. May26 futures closed 4.5 cents lower at $11.9625, while the Jul26 contract lost 4.0 cents to end the day at $12.09. The Nov26 contract finished 1.0 cent higher at $11.4825.
Market Headlines:
Iran appointed a new supreme leader:
Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iran’s former leader, has been named his successor. Iranian state television announced the decision early Monday and broadcast footage of supporters of the Islamic Republic celebrating in the streets. Despite the public displays of support, Reuters interviews with members of the Revolutionary Guards’ volunteer militia, ordinary citizens, officials, and insiders suggest the Islamic Republic may have a smaller support base than in the past.
President Trump has publicly stated he would reject Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s new leader, an outcome that had been widely anticipated. When asked by ABC News on Sunday, Trump said he wants a vote in who is appointed after the war and added that a new leader “is not going to last long” without his approval.
Brazil’s crop harvest has progressed:
Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean harvest has reached 48% complete, up from 38% the previous week. However, progress continues to lag behind last year’s pace of 60% and the five-year average of 54%. Mato Grosso, the country’s largest soybean-producing state and responsible for more than one-fourth of national output, leads harvest progress at 86% complete. Despite the lead, the state also trails historical levels, with harvest at 93% at this time last year and a five-year average of 91%.
Brazil’s first-crop corn harvest has reached 41% complete, up from 31% the previous week. The pace remains slightly behind last year’s progress of 45% but is close to the five-year average of 43%. Rio Grande do Sul leads harvest progress at 71% complete, however it is also behind last year’s pace of 77% for the same week.
Weekly USDA Export Inspections:
(week ended 3.5.26)
US corn export inspections totaled 59.748 million bushels, within market expectations of 43.305-88.579 million bushels, but down from the previous week’s 73.189 million bushels. Over the past four weeks, inspections have averaged 67.779 million bushels per week, well above the same period last year when inspections averaged 59.042 million bushels per week. Despite the stronger four-week pace, inspections for the same week last year totaled 72.603 million bushels, 17.7% higher than this week’s figure. Cumulative export inspections now stand at 1.622 billion bushels, 41.54% above the total at this time last year. Top export destinations included Mexico, Japan, Colombia, Korea, and the Philippines.
US soybean export inspections totaled 32.305 million bushels, within market expectations of 18.372-36.193 million bushels. Inspections declined 24.34% from the previous week’s 42.733 million bushels but were near last year’s same-week total of 31.532 million bushels. Over the past four weeks, soybean inspections have averaged 36.343 million bushels per week, compared to 29.086 million bushels during the same period last year. Cumulative inspections now total 995.528 million bushels, compared to 1.413 billion bushels at this time last year, reflecting a year-over-year deficit of 29.57%. However, the gap has narrowed from the roughly 46% deficit recorded at the end of December. Top export destinations included China, Egypt, Indonesia, and Mexico.
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