Grain Market Commentary 3/4/26
![]()
CBOT:
Soybeans traded mostly lower throughout the session and closed down 0-2 cents. The May26 contract lost 1.0 cent to close at $11.695, while the Jul26 contract ended 1/4 of a cent lower at $11.83. Nov26 futures closed 1.0 cent lower at $11.305.
Corn lost 0-3 cents. The May26 contract lost 2.75 cents to close at $4.4375. Jul26 futures closed 2.0 cents lower at $4.535, while the Sep26 contract lost 1.5 cents to close at $4.555. Calendar spreads weakened, with the May-Jul settling at -9.75 cents and the Jul-Sep settling at -2.0 cents.
Market Headlines:
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that President Trump’s new 15% global tariffs would likely take effect this week:
On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the increase in President Trump’s temporary global tariff rate from 10% to 15% will likely take effect sometime this week. Bessent added that the administration continues working to rebuild the broader tariff program under new legal authorities and expects tariff rates to return to previous levels within several months.
US threatened a full trade embargo on Spain after it denied use of its bases for Iran-related missions:
President Trump threatened to impose a full US trade embargo on Spain after the country refused to allow US forces to use its military bases for operations related to strikes in Iran. Spanish officials said they would not permit the bases to be used for military action against Iran, prompting the US to relocate 15 aircraft from installations in southern Spain.
President Trump said he had directed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to “cut off all dealings” with Spain. In response, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said, “Spain is a member of the European Union, and we negotiate about tariffs with the United States only together or not at all.”
Weekly EIA Ethanol Data:
US ethanol production averaged 1.095 million barrels per day, down slightly from the prior week’s 1.113 million barrels per day and below market expectations of 1.110–1.150 mbpd. Production reached the second lowest level in the past 10 weeks, with the lowest occurring during the week when severe weather affected much of the Midwest. Compared to last year’s same-week production of 1.093 mbpd, output was nearly unchanged after the previous three weeks averaged a year-over-year increase of 2.89%. The recent decline brought the 4-week average to 1.109 mbpd.
US ethanol stocks totaled 26.337 million barrels, a larger-than-expected increase as market expectations ranged from 25.500–26.146 million barrels. Despite the drop in production, stocks rose 2.69% from the previous week’s 25.646 million barrels. This seasonal build is typical and often continues through mid-March. Stocks remain 3.49% below year-ago levels but stand as the second-highest late-February level on record.
US ethanol exports averaged 217,000 barrels per day, a 53.90% increase from the previous week’s 141,000 barrels per day and 76.42% above the same week last year. This marks the third-highest weekly export total since the EIA began publishing the data. Higher totals occurred during the weeks of December 19, 2025 (219,000 bpd) and January 16, 2026 (218,000 bpd).
Let’s Talk!
Yield365 – Grain Marketing Simplified
Call: 815.823.2522
Click HERE to learn more
Click HERE to view previous market commentary
Disclaimer: The risk of using futures and options can be substantial and individuals must consider whether they are suitable for their operation. Marketing advice is based on information obtained from third-party sources and is believed to be reliable but not guaranteed by Yield365. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Marketing advice reflects our good faith judgement at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.
