DeLong Commentary

CBOT:

Corn stocks came in below market expectations, while planting intentions showed producers reporting above the average trade guess. The acreage number overshadowed the supportive stocks miss, leaving corn futures to gain only 0-2 cents. The May26 contract added 2.0 cents to close at $4.577. Jul26 futures picked up just 3/4 of a cent to settle at $4.6825, while the Sep26 contract finished unchanged at $4.7025. Dec26 futures edged up 1/4 cent to close at $4.8425.

Soybeans closed 10-14 cents higher with new crop leading the way. Planting intentions came in below market expectations, providing the market’s primary upside catalyst. The May26 contract added 11.25 cents to settle at $11.71, while the Jul26 contract gained 11.0 cents to close at $11.86. Nov26 futures posted the strongest gains, closing 13.5 cents higher at $11.575.

Market Headlines:

Iran attacked a fully loaded oil taker off Dubai:

Iran continued to underscore the risks of shipping near the Strait of Hormuz. The country set a fully loaded crude oil tanker off Dubai ablaze before the fire was contained without spill or injury. The attack followed President Trump’s warning that the US would ‘obliterate’ Iran’s energy infrastructure if no deal was reached to reopen the strait. China and Pakistan both stepped up diplomatic efforts to find a resolution.

Later in the day, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that the next few days would be ‘decisive’ for Iran and that conflict could intensify without a deal. Iran responded with an escalating threat, with the Revolutionary Guard releasing a list of 18 US companies it would target in the region, including Apple, Google, Intel, IBM, Tesla, and Boeing.

Reuters reported that Iranian President Pezeshkian signaled the country is prepared to end the conflict if it receives guarantees, though Israel is widely expected to reject the terms.

USDA Prospective Plantings / Quarterly Grain Stocks Report:

The USDA released its Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks reports at 11:00 a.m. CST, delivering a mixed set of numbers that pushed most ag markets higher on the session.

Grain Stocks: March 1 corn stocks came in below market expectations at 9.024 billion bushels, falling 79.555 million bushels short of the average trade estimate of 9.104 billion. However, stocks are still up 10.76% from year-ago levels. On-farm stocks of 5.432 billion bushels accounted for 60.19% of total supplies and ran 20% above the previous year. Off-farm stocks declined slightly. March 1 soybean stocks topped expectations at 2.105 billion bushels, coming in 37.803 million bushels above the average trade estimate and up 10.15% from last year’s 1.911 billion bushels. Off-farm stocks drove the beat, rising 16.47% from year-ago levels, while on-farm stocks came in largely in line with the previous year.

Prospective Plantings: Corn planting intentions came in above market expectations at 95.338 million acres. This figure topped the average trade estimate of 94.371 million, though is still 3.49% below last year. Soybean planting intentions were placed at 84.700 million acres. This number is below the average trade estimate of 85.549 million acres, but up 4.29% from the previous year. Combined corn and soybean acres totaled 180.038 million, nearly identical to last year’s 180.003 million, suggesting producers are rotating acres out of corn and into soybeans rather than pulling ground out of production altogether.

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