DeLong Commentary

CBOT:

Corn closed 3-6 cents higher, drawing support from an E15 sales announcement (read more below). The May26 contract gained 5.0 cents to close at $4.6725, while Jul26 added 5.75 cents to settle at $4.7775. Sep26 closed at $4.7975, up 5.0 cents. New crop futures also added 5.0 cents, ending the session at $4.9325.

Soybeans traded higher throughout most of the session before surging after the White House announced the date of President Trump’s visit to China (read more below). May26 jumped 18.5 cents to close at $11.7175, and Jul26 gained 18.25 cents to settle at $11.8775. Nov26 added 7.75 cents, closing at $11.50.

Market Headlines:

US President Trump will visit China on May 14-15:

The White House announced that President Trump will travel to China on May 14-15 to meet with President Xi Jinping. President Xi will also make a reciprocal visit to the US at a later date. The trip was originally scheduled for next week but was pushed back as conflict in Iran continues. Press Secretary Karoline Levitt noted that President Xi understood the need to reschedule.

The visit marks the first presidential trip to China since Trump’s 2017 visit and the first in-person meeting between the two leaders since October 2025.

The EPA approves nationwide summertime E15/E10:

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, alongside the Department of Energy, issued a temporary emergency waiver authorizing nationwide E15 sales and removing all federal impediments to E10 sales. The waivers take effect May 1, 2026, with the stated goals of strengthening the US fuel supply and stabilizing consumer fuel prices.

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins praised the decision, saying it will lower prices at the pump, send a clear demand signal to domestic biofuels producers, and expand market opportunities for American farmers. Rollins added that while the news is positive for farmers, year-round sales would provide greater clarity for both producers and consumers.

Iran rejects US ceasefire proposal:

The US delivered a 15-point peace proposal to Iran through Pakistan, following President Trump’s claim Monday of positive dialogue between the two countries. Several Iranian officials denied that any negotiations took place, though they confirmed receiving messages through friendly nations. The proposal called on Iran to dismantle key nuclear facilities and reduce its missile arsenal in exchange for sanctions relief.

Iran rejected the proposal. An Iranian security official said the war will end “when Iran decides to do so”. Press TV outlined five Iranian demands, including a complete halt to aggressions and assassinations, concrete mechanisms to prevent future conflict, and a plan for paying war damages and reparations. Iranian officials stated that no negotiations will occur until those conditions are met.

Weekly EIA Ethanol Data:

US ethanol production averaged 1.116 million barrels per day (mbpd), up from 1.093 mbpd the prior week and 5.98% above the same week last year at 1.053 mbpd. Over the last four weeks, production averaged 1.108 mbpd, a 2.78% year-over-year gain from the 1.078 mbpd recorded during the same period last year.

US ethanol stocks reached 27.170 million barrels, up from 26.407 million barrels the prior week. Stocks hit their highest level in 52 weeks, landing just below last year’s same-week figure of 27.350 million barrels, which stands as the record same-week high.

US ethanol exports came in at 119,000 barrels per day, down from 174,000 barrels per day the prior week. Despite the weekly dip, the four-week average was 174,500 barrels per day, running 24.64% above last year’s same-period average of 140,000 barrels per day.

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