Grain Market Commentary 3/23/26
CBOT:
Markets traded both sides Monday, driven largely by headline volatility rather than fundamental developments. Prices pushed higher through the morning before retreating after President Trump posted about a potential ceasefire with Iran.
Corn rallied early, with the Dec26 contract touching a two-week high of $4.98, but momentum faded based on the news of a possible ceasefire and contracts finished 3–5 cents lower across the board. May26 and Jul26 each shed 5.0 cents, closing at $4.595 and $4.705, respectively. Sep26 dropped 5.25 cents to $4.725, while Dec26 settled 4.5 cents lower at $4.865.
Soybeans opened lower but found support mid-morning after confirmation that the RVO announcement will arrive by month end. Nearby contracts closed 3-4 cents higher, with deferred months adding 6-8 cents. May26 gained 3.25 cents to settle at $11.615, and Jul26 added 3.0 cents to close at $11.790. New crop futures added 7.5 cents to settle at $11.465.
Market Headlines:
Deescalation efforts emerge in the US/Israeli – Iran conflict:
The US/Israeli–Iran war, now entering its fifth week, intensified over the weekend as both sides threatened strikes on major energy infrastructure. President Trump warned he would “obliterate” Iranian power plants if Iran did not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, while Iran threatened to strike US energy, desalination, and IT assets across the Gulf region.
By Monday morning, the tone shifted. President Trump described recent conversations with Iran as “good and productive” and directed the Department of War to postpone strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days, contingent on the progress of ongoing talks. Later that morning, Israeli officials reported that mediating countries were working to arrange a meeting between US envoys Witkoff and Kushner and Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf. The news pushed crude oil lower, with grains following.
In a related development, Japan signaled it would consider deploying its military for minesweeping operations in the Strait of Hormuz if a full ceasefire is reached, a significant statement given that 90% of Japan’s oil imports pass through the strait.
China has eased its inspection requirements on Brazilian soybean cargoes:
China has relaxed its rules governing the presence of weeds in Brazilian soybean shipments. Earlier this month, Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry introduced stricter sanitary inspections on soybean exports to China, including enhanced checks for pests and weeds, at China’s request. The tightened standards disrupted exports, with several major trading firms reporting shipping delays and outright suspensions.
Following negotiations between the two countries, the parties agreed to a more flexible approach, moving away from a zero-tolerance policy. The resolution reduces the likelihood that China will turn to US soybeans to meet its needs for the current crop year.
Weekly Export Inspections:
(week ended 3.19.26)
US corn export inspections for the week came in at 66.93 million bushels, within market expectations of 55.12–80.71 million bushels. The figure edged above the prior week’s 65.78 million bushels and ran 9.83% ahead of the 60.94 million bushels inspected during the same week last year. Over the last four weeks, inspections averaged 66.41 million bushels per week, compared to 63.35 million bushels per week during the same period last year.
Cumulative export inspections now stand at 1.755 billion bushels, 37.79% above the prior year’s same-week total of 1.274 billion bushels. The year-over-year advantage continues to narrow from earlier in the marketing year, as the prior year saw a pickup in export inspections from February through June. Top destinations were Mexico, Japan, and Colombia.
US soybean export inspections
came in at 40.48 million bushels, near the top of market expectations of 22.05–42.26 million bushels. The figure rose from 36.05 million bushels the prior week and ran well above the 30.64 million bushels inspected during the same week last year. Over the last four weeks, inspections averaged 37.88 million bushels per week, well above the 28.09 million bushels per week from the same period last year, driven by Chinese purchases that came later than their typical window this marketing year.
Cumulative soybean export inspections now stand at 1.072 billion bushels, 26.97% below the 1.468 billion bushels from the same week last year. The year-over-year deficit continues to shrink as the delayed Chinese purchases work their way into the totals. Top destinations were China, Egypt, and Japan.
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