US and Iran conflict developments:
Last week, the US and Iran held negotiations focused on placing controls on Tehran’s nuclear program. During this time the US expanded its military presence in the Middle East. On Friday, President Trump said he was disappointed with the progress of the talks, stating that Iran remained unwilling to forswear nuclear weapons. On Saturday, US and Israeli forces carried out Operation Epic Fury, which killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and more than 40 senior officials. Following his death, the Islamic Republic must select a new leader. President Trump has urged Iranians to use this moment to challenge the ruling theocracy, which has previously cracked down on nationwide protests.
In response, Iran launched strikes against Israel and targeted US bases in the region. Iranian attacks have killed four US service members and several civilians in Gulf nations.
AgRural and StoneX trimmed forecasts for Brazil’s soybean output:
Both firms lowered their 2025/2026 Brazilian soybean production estimates due to drought-related yield losses in Rio Grande do Sul and heavy rains that have slowed harvest progress. AgRural reduced its estimate to 178 million metric tons (mmt), down from 181 mmt. The firm noted that higher yields in other states, particularly Mato Grosso, partially offset drought losses. StoneX cut its forecast by 2.1% to 177.8 mmt and indicated that additional revisions remain possible, as the soybean cycle runs later in Rio Grande do Sul than in other regions. Despite these reductions, current projections still indicate a record crop.
Spring crop insurance prices are now set:
USDA finalized the spring projected prices for crop insurance revenue policies for the 2026/2027 crop year on Friday, as the February price discovery period concluded. USDA calculates these prices by averaging the daily closes of the November soybean contract and the December corn contract throughout February. The projected price is set at $4.62 per bushel for corn, down 8 cents from last year, and $11.09 per bushel for soybeans, up 55 cents from a year ago.
Producers now have until March 15 to purchase crop insurance coverage for the 2026/2027 crop year.
USDA Export Inspections:
(week ended 2.26.26)
US corn export inspections totaled 73.17 million bushels last week, down from 79.53 million the prior week, but well above market expectations of roughly 40.0-62.5 million bushels. Over the past four weeks, inspections have averaged 68.71 million bushels per week, compared to 55.02 million during the same period last year. Weekly inspections were 37.41% higher than the 53.25 million bushels shipped during the same week a year ago. Cumulative corn export inspections now stand at 1.559 billion bushels, 45.15% above last year’s 1.074 billion bushels at this time.
US soybean export inspections came in at 41.79 million bushels, up from 25.04 million the previous week and above market expectations of around 26.0-36.0 million bushels. Inspections also exceeded the 25.80 million bushels recorded during the same week last year. Over the past four weeks, soybean inspections have averaged 38.27 million bushels per week, compared to 31.29 million a year ago. China’s purchases of US soybeans outside the typical seasonal window have supported the recent year-over-year increase in weekly shipments. However, cumulative soybean export inspections total 962.053 million bushels, trailing last year’s 1.382 billion bushels by 30.37%, although that deficit has narrowed in recent weeks as Chinese demand re-emerged.
