CBOT:
Corn finished 8–13 cents lower, following soybean price action despite strong export inspections. The May26 contract lost 12.5 cents, closing at $4.5475. Jul26 and Sep26 futures each closed 11.5 cents lower at $4.6675 and $4.6775, respectively. The Dec26 contract shed 11.5 cents, ending the day at $4.80.
Soybeans closed 30–70 cents lower, following President Trump’s comments and news that officials did not discuss an additional 8 mmt US soybean purchase commitment during US-China trade talks (read more below). Soybeans seemed to ignore NOPA crush numbers that exceeded expectations and strong export inspections. May26 and Jul26 contracts both closed limit down, finishing 70 cents lower at $11.5525 (synthetic close of $11.5025) and $11.675 (synthetic close of $11.63), respectively. Nov26 futures closed 39.25 cents lower at $11.2225.
Market Headlines:
US, China hold trade talks at the headquarters of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development:
US and Chinese officials conclude talks Monday, with both sides characterizing discussions as “remarkably stable.” The talks aimed to lay the groundwork for a Trump-Xi summit at the end of the month. President Trump indicated a potential delay to the summit, stating “we may delay.” Treasury Secretary Bessent clarified that any delay stems from logistical considerations and the President’s preference to remain in the US during the ongoing conflict with Iran, not from any dispute with China.
During talks, China expressed openness to purchasing more US agricultural goods, including poultry, beef, and non-soybean row crops. US officials noted that the 12 mmt purchase commitment has been fulfilled, and Chinese officials confirmed an agreement to purchase 25 mmt of US soybeans annually over the next three years. Officials made no mention of an additional 8 mmt purchase agreement. This news sent soybean markets lower.
Officials also discussed the consideration of formal mechanisms to manage trade and the flow of Chinese-produced critical minerals to US companies
President Trump calls on NATO allies to act against Iran:
As the US/Israel conflict with Iran enters its third week, President Trump called on NATO allies to send reinforcements to secure the Strait of Hormuz for international shipping. Trump warned that a failure to help keep the shipping route open would be “very bad” for the future of those allies.
February NOPA Crush report:
NOPA members crushed 208.785 million bushels of soybeans in February, well above the market estimate range of 199.400–205.453 million bushels. Crush volume rose 17.4% from the 177.870 million bushels processed in February 2025, with the daily crush rate averaging 7.457 million bushels per day — a new record pace.
Soybean oil stocks among NOPA members totaled 2.080 billion pounds, within the market estimate range of 1.701–2.100 billion pounds. Stocks climbed 9.5% from January’s 1.900 billion pounds and 38.4% from the 1.503 billion pounds recorded in February 2025.
Weekly Export Inspections:
(week ended 3.12.26)
US corn export inspections totaled 65.312 million bushels, near the top of market expectations of 39.368–66.926 million bushels. Inspections rose from the previous week’s 59.958 million bushels and came in 1.95% below the 66.611 million bushels exported the same week last year. Over the last four weeks, inspections averaged 69.5 million bushels per week, up from 59.6 million bushels per week during the same period last year. Cumulative inspections now stand at 1.688 billion bushels, up 39% from last year’s same-week total of 1.213 billion bushels. Top destinations this week were Mexico, Japan, and Spain.
US soybean export inspections totaled 35.495 million bushels, well above market expectations of 14.697–29.395 million bushels. Inspections rose from the previous week’s 32.592 million bushels. Over the last four weeks, soybean export inspections averaged 34.0 million bushels per week, above the 28.5 million bushels per week from the same period last year. Cumulative inspections now total 1.031 billion bushels, compared to 1.438 billion bushels at the same point last year. This represents a 28.30% year-over-year deficit — an improvement from the 45% year-over-year deficit seen at the start of 2026. Top destinations this week were China, Egypt, and Mexico.
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