Grain Market Commentary 3/13/26
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CBOT:
Corn gained 1-5 cents in the front months, finding support from Brazil’s CONAB slightly lowering its corn crop estimate and continued strength in export sales. The May26 contract added 4.5 cents to end the day at $4.6725, while the Jul26 contract gained 3.75 cents to close at $4.7825. Sep26 futures closed 1.75 cents higher at $4.7925. New-crop futures, the Dec26 contract, gained 1 cent to close at $4.91.
Soybeans lost 3-7 cents on the day ahead of a meeting between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese officials scheduled for Sunday in Paris, where they will prepare for the Trump–Xi meeting later this month. Both the May26 and Jul26 contracts lost 3.5 cents to close at $12.2525 and $12.375, respectively. The Nov26 contract closed 7.5 cents lower at $11.615.
Market Headlines:
President Trump says the US will be hitting Iran “very hard”:
Following the issuance of a partial 30-day waiver allowing purchases of sanctioned Russian oil currently at sea in an effort to ease oil prices, President Trump stated that the United States will be hitting Iran “very hard over the next week.” Furthermore, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that Friday could see the highest number of US strikes on Iranian targets since the conflict began.
Other US/Israel – Iran conflict headlines:
- The Financial Times has reported that US forces have used years’ worth of key munitions since the war began.
- An Iran-backed militant group is claiming responsibility for shooting down a US military refueling aircraft.
- NATO air defenses intercepted a third ballistic missile launched from Iran toward Turkey.
- Reports overnight indicated that an Indian tanker successfully sailed out of the Strait, which allowed crude oil price to fall slightly.
Winter storm warnings have been issued for northern Minnesota and Wisconsin:
The National Weather Service issued blizzard warnings across parts of both states. Forecasters expect an additional 1–6 inches of snow in Minnesota, with some areas potentially receiving up to 8 inches. Additionally, strong winds with gusts up to 55 mph are also expected. The NWS warned that the storms could create whiteout conditions and make travel extremely dangerous.
Weekly Drought Monitor: 
(week ended 3.10.26)
Throughout the Midwest, drought conditions improved significantly. Several low-pressure systems moved across the region during the first week of March, bringing widespread precipitation. Central and southern Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, and southern Missouri received 1.5 inches or more of rainfall, which helped recharge soil moisture. As a result, these areas saw a one-category improvement in drought conditions.
In the Central Great Plains and Central Rockies, widespread drought conditions persist. Low snowpack in the Central Rockies remains a major concern heading into spring. Snow water equivalent in Colorado river basins is roughly 70% below the 1991–2020 average. In contrast, heavy rains in eastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska led to localized one-category improvements in drought conditions.
Looking ahead, a strong cold front is expected to move from the Great Plains to the East Coast by March 16. Forecasts call for five-day precipitation totals from March 12–16 to exceed the liquid equivalent of 1 inch across parts of the Great Lakes and New England.
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