Grain Market Commentary 3/11/26
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CBOT:
Corn ended the day 7-9 cents higher, finding support from strong weekly ethanol production and export data as well as strength in energy markets. The May26 contract added 8.0 cents to close at $4.6025. Jul26 futures gained 8.75 cents to end the day at $4.72, while the Sep26 contract closed 9.75 cents higher at $4.755. The trend in corn remains higher.
Soybeans traded higher overnight and into the early part of the session before fading into the close. Despite the late-session pullback, soybeans finished the day 8-13 cents higher. The May26 and Jul26 futures contracts both gained 12.25 cents, closing at $12.14 and $12.2725, respectively. Nov26 futures closed 9.75 cents higher at $11.6325.
Market Headlines:
The IEA considers release of oil stocks in response to the surge in oil price:
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is expected to recommend the release of up to 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves in response to the recent surge in crude oil prices driven by the conflict in the Middle East. If approved, the move would mark the largest strategic stock release in IEA history. Member nations are expected to vote on the proposal today.
The release would likely be distributed over at least two months. Analysts note that the pace of the release could have an equal or even greater impact on the market than the total volume. Any release would not begin immediately, as member countries still need to determine allocations and timelines before implementation can begin.
Weekly EIA Ethanol Data:
(week ended 3.6.26)
US ethanol production averaged 1.126 million barrels per day, at the top end of market expectations of 1.085–1.126 mbpd. Production increased from the previous week’s 1.095 million barrels per day and reached the highest level in eight weeks. Over the last four weeks, production averaged 1.113 mbpd, a 3.06% increase from the same period last year when production averaged 1.080 mbpd. On a weekly basis, production was 6.03% higher than the same week last year. However, the last four weeks averaged a more moderate 3.08% year-over-year increase. While ethanol plants typically enter maintenance downtime from mid-March through April, which usually lowers production, ethanol stocks remain below recent year levels and exports continue to run at strong levels. These factors may allow production to diverge from typical seasonal patterns.
US ethanol stocks totaled 25.580 million barrels, a larger-than-expected decline compared to market expectations of 25.8–27.3 million barrels. Despite the increase in production, stocks fell 2.87% from the previous week’s 26.337 million barrels, moving against the normal seasonal build. Stocks were also 6.56% below the same week last year, when inventories totaled 27.376 million barrels.
US ethanol exports averaged a strong 188,000 barrels per day but declined from the previous week’s 217,000 barrels per day. Over the last four weeks, exports averaged 181,000 bpd, well above the 135,000 bpd averaged during the same period last year, representing a 34.07% year-over-year increase.
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