Grain Market Commentary 3/10/26
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CBOT:
Corn finished the day 0-2 cents lower after spending the session trading lower and again taking direction from movements in crude oil. The May26 contract ended unchanged at $4.5225. The Jul26 contract lost 1 cent to close at $4.6325, while Sep26 futures closed 1.5 cents lower at $4.6575. New-crop Dec26 futures ended the day 1 cent lower at $4.7975.
Soybeans closed 5-8 cents higher, despite minimal change within the March WASDE and finding support from anticipation that China will purchase additional soybeans this week after Chinese officials meet with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. May26 futures closed 7.0 cents higher at $12.0175, while the Jul26 contract added 7.5 cents to close at $12.15. The Nov26 contract gained 7.75 cents to end the day at $11.535.
Market Headlines:
Outside markets were driven by Middle East headlines:
Early in the session, crude oil broke lower after comments suggested the conflict with Iran may not escalate as much as previously feared. Markets then traded erratically throughout the day as traders reacted to a series of conflicting headlines involving the Strait of Hormuz. While it was initially reported by Energy Secretary Chris Wright that the US Navy escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, the headline was quickly withdrawn. Subsequent reports stated that US intelligence had observed indications that Iran may be preparing to deploy mines in the Strait of Hormuz and that the US had asked Israel to halt strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure.
Grain and oilseed markets took direction from these outside markets and reflected the volatility in crude oil throughout the session.
The March USDA WASDE report was released at 11:00am CST:
The March WASDE report included very few changes to the US balance sheets, leaving domestic corn and soybean outlooks largely unchanged from February. Most adjustments occurred on the global side, including a slightly larger global corn supply and marginally higher oilseed production. Corn and soybean futures showed little price reaction following the report’s release.
Corn: The USDA made no changes to the 2025/26 US corn balance sheet. Globally, corn carryout increased as the USDA raised production estimates for Ukraine to 30.7 million tons and Brazil to 132.0 million tons, while lowering Argentina’s crop to 52.0 million tons due to February dryness. Global ending stocks increased to 295.8 million tons from 294.4 million tons in February but below last year’s same report estimate of 315.3-million-ton.
Soybeans: The US soybean balance sheet saw minor revisions, but ending stocks remained unchanged. The USDA increased imports by 5 million bushels and raised crush by 5 million bushels. Globally, soybean ending stocks declined slightly to 125.3 million tons from 125.5 million tons in February and compared with 123.8 million tons in the same report last year. The reduction primarily reflected lower production estimates for Argentina and Ukraine.
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