Grain Market Commentary 2/9/26
CBOT Pricing:
Corn ended the session down 0-2 cents amid a lack of fresh news. The Mar26 contract closed 1.5 cents lower at $4.2875, while May26 futures finished down 1.75 cents at $4.37.
Soybeans closed 0-5 cents lower as the market shifted into a consolidative tone. The absence of policy developments or confirmed Chinese purchases weighed on prices. Mar26 futures settled 4.5 cents lower at $11.1075, while the May26 contract declined 3.75 cents to close at $11.25.
Market Headlines:
It remains unclear whether China will buy an addition 8mmt of US soybeans:
China’s soybean purchasing intentions remain unclear following mixed signals from both market chatter and official sources. On Friday, trade talk suggested China may have purchased four old-crop US soybean cargoes and two new-crop cargoes (note: Old-crop US supplies remain uncompetitive, while new-crop offers are only marginally attractive for state-owned buyers, as private Chinese buyers continue to face an additional 10% import tax).
This morning, the USDA confirmed China booked 9.7 million bushels of US soybeans for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year, classifying the sale as old crop. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that China has “lived up to their end of the bargain,” referencing a previously discussed 12 mmt soybean commitment. However, Bessent noted there is still no clear timeline for when the full trade agreement text will be released.
USDA’s monthly WASDE will be released tomorrow:
The February WASDE will be released on Tuesday, February 10. Historically, the February report includes limited revisions to US corn, soybean, and wheat balance sheets, as it follows several major reports released in January. Any adjustments are most likely to focus on exports. It remains unclear whether the USDA will incorporate last week’s social media claims from President Trump regarding Chinese soybean purchases.
Brazil’s soybean harvest continues:
Brazilian agricultural consulting firm Safras estimates Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 13%, compared to 15% at the same time last year and the same-week average of 17%. Harvest continues to lag the average pace after inadequate rainfall disrupted planting across central and southern regions in November. In addition, poorly timed rainfall slowed early harvest activity in key producing states, including Mato Grosso.
Weekly Export Inspections:
(week ended 2.5.26)
US corn export inspections were 51.479 million bushels, above market expectations of 35.4-47.2 million bushels. Export inspections were up 14% from the previous week’s 45.151 million bushels and similar to last year’s same week of 53.728 million bushels. Over the last four weeks, export inspections averaged 54 million bushels per week and were in line with last year’s same 4-week average. Cumulative export inspections are now 1.336 billion bushels, 46.72% above last year’s same week cumulative bushels of 910 million bushels. During the previous week cumulative bushels were up 49.85% year-over-year, therefore it continues to slip as last year’s export inspection pace increased during the February – June period. Top export destinations were to Mexico, Columbia, and Japan.
US soybean export inspections totaled 41.745 million bushels, within market expectations of 29.4-60.6 million bushels. Export inspections were down 13.78% from the prior week’s 48.414 million bushels, while similar to last year’s same week of 40.340 million bushels. Over the last 4-weeks, soybean export inspections averaged 47.2 million bushels per week, above last year’s same period average of 36.4 million bushels. The 4-week average is running higher as the export program to China is outside of the normal window. Cumulative export inspections now total 850 million bushels, compared to last year’s same week total of 1.296 billion bushels. The current deficit in 34% year-over-year but has reduced since China has resumed purchases. Top export destinations for the week include China, Egypt, Germany, Japan, and Mexico.
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