Grain Market Commentary 2/6/26
CBOT Pricing:
Corn closed the week 2.0-3.25 cents higher, posting modest gains compared with the strength seen in the soybean market. Mar26 futures settled 4.75 cents lower on Friday but finished the week up 2.0 cents (0.5%) at $4.3025. The May26 contract closed 4.25 cents lower on the day at $4.3875, ending the week 3.0 cents (0.7%) higher. Jul26 futures declined 4.0 cents on Friday but gained 3.25 cents (0.7%) on the week to close at $4.4525.
Soybeans ended the week 49-52 cents higher, supported by President Trump’s social media comments regarding China’s consideration of additional purchases of US agricultural products, including 8 million metric tons of US soybeans. The Mar26 contract gained 3.0 cents in Friday’s session and finished the week up 51.0 cents (4.8%) at $11.1525. May26 futures settled at $11.2875, up 2.75 cents on the day and 51.75 cents (4.8%) higher on the week.
Market Headlines:
President Trump signed a bill to end the partial government shutdown:
On Tuesday, President Trump signed a funding bill that ended the four-day partial government shutdown. The House passed the legislation by a vote of 217–214 before sending it to the president’s desk. The bill included five full-year funding measures and a two-week extension for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding bill, which is set to expire on Feb. 14.
The shutdown began after Senate Democrats declined to advance a DHS funding bill that included funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Lawmakers later separated DHS funding from the broader package and approved a two-week extension to allow additional negotiations.
US farm income is set to fall in 2026 despite the increase in government payments:
On Thursday, the USDA released its latest forecast for US farm income. The agency projects US net farm income will decline 0.7% to $153.4 billion in 2026, even as government payments rise. Government support is expected to account for 29% of producers’ profits. Without these payments, the USDA estimates net farm income would fall 12% to $109.1 billion.
The USDA projects farmers received $30.5 billion in direct government payments in 2025 and will receive $44.3 billion in 2026. The increase reflects farm bill programs triggered by lower crop prices, along with higher levels of supplemental and disaster assistance.
Weekly USDA Drought Monitor:
Temperatures averaged below normal across the eastern US, with the coldest conditions concentrated in the Northeast and Midwest. In contrast, temperatures across the western US ran above average. Precipitation remained limited across most of the country.
In the Midwest, cold temperatures and limited precipitation left drought conditions largely unchanged from the previous week. Persistently cold conditions kept soils frozen, preventing recent precipitation and snowmelt from entering the hydrologic system. Conditions showed slight improvement in western Michigan, where weekly snowfall accumulated along the Lake Michigan shoreline. Meanwhile, drought conditions modestly worsened in southwest Missouri due to limited precipitation and declining soil moisture.
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