Grain Market Commentary 2/5/26
CBOT Pricing:
Corn closed 3-6 cents higher. Unlike the previous session, corn followed strength in the soybean market and found additional support from short covering. March corn gained 5.5 cents to close at $4.35, a level not traded since the January USDA reports. May26 and Jul26 contracts each added 6 cents, settling at $4.43 and $4.4925, respectively.
Soybeans extended the prior day’s rally through the close, with the March 2026 contract finishing just 1 cent below its intraday high. March futures advanced 20.0 cents to settle at $11.1225. May26 futures led the gains, rising 21.25 cents to $11.26, while July 2026 increased 20.5 cents to close at $11.3725. The Mar-May spread widened to -13.75 cents, and the July-November inverse strengthened to +38.75 cents.
Market Headlines:
Soybean futures post record trading volume Wednesday:
Soybean futures recorded a new single-day volume high following President Trump’s social media comments regarding China’s consideration of an additional 8 million metric ton purchase of US soybeans. Trading volume reached 930,000 contracts, equivalent to approximately 4.65 billion bushels. This surpassed the previous record of 804,244 contracts set on April 4, 2016.
Additional 8mmt US soybean purchase under consideration by China:
The potential purchase remains unconfirmed. While President Trump indicated that China is considering an additional 8 million metric ton purchase, China has not confirmed any agreement. It is important to note; China has also yet to confirm the previously discussed 12 million metric ton purchase.
The USDA currently projects US soybean ending stocks at 350 million bushels. An 8 million metric ton purchase, equivalent to approximately 293 million bushels, would reduce ending stocks to their tightest level in several years. Accommodating an additional 8 million metric tons would likely require China to rotate existing inventories and shift a portion of soybean purchases from South America to the United States, despite US supplies currently trading at a premium.
USDA to release February WASDE report next week:
The USDA is scheduled to release the February WASDE report on Tuesday, February 10. Historically, the February report has tended to generate less market volatility than other WASDE releases, though it may still include meaningful updates to demand estimates.
Weekly Export Sales:
(week ended 1/29/25)
US corn export sales totaled 40.99 million bushels, coming in at the lower end of market expectations of 31.49–83.24 million bushels. Sales declined 37% from the prior week and ran 42% below the four-week average of 77.2 million bushels per week. Total commitments now stand at 2.312 billion bushels, up 31% from last year’s 1.762 billion bushels. The largest buyers were Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Panama, and Indonesia.
US soybean export sales totaled 16.1 million bushels, near the bottom of market expectations of 14.69–58.79 million bushels and a marketing-year low. Sales fell 47% from the previous week and were 72% below the four-week average. Total commitments reached 1.260 billion bushels, down 20% from last year’s same-week total of 1.576 billion bushels. Leading buyers included China, Egypt, Mexico, the Netherlands, and Vietnam.
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