DeLong Commentary

USDA Crop Progress:

(week ended 9.28.25)

Soybeans: The good to excellent rating stands at 62%, up slightly from 61% last week, but below the 64% recorded during the same week last year. Harvest progress is at 19%, which is in line with market expectations and just below the 5-year average of 20%.

Corn: The good to excellent rating remains at 66%, unchanged from the previous week and above last year’s rating of 64%. Currently, 71% of the crop is reported as mature, compared to the 5-year average of 74%. Harvest is 18% complete, up from 11% last week and just below the 5-year average of 19%.

CBOT Pricing:

Soybeans traded lower throughout the session, ending 2-4 cents below the prior settlement during an active harvest week across the Midwest and Northern Plains. The Nov25 and Jan26 futures contracts both settled 3.25 cents lower, at 10.105 and 10.2975, respectively.

Corn traded mixed during the overnight session before moving lower ahead of the mid-session break. The December 2025 contract found some support from another week of solid weekly export inspections, closing just 0.5 cent lower at 4.215 after reaching a low of 4.1875 earlier in the day. The March 2026 contract ended the session nearly unchanged at 4.385.

Weekly Export Inspections:

(week ended 9.25.25)

US corn export inspections

Corn export inspections totaled 60.1 million bushels last week, landing at the upper end of market expectations, of 43.3 – 63.0 million bushels. This week’s export inspections were consistent with recent weeks; over the first four weeks of the 2025/26 marketing year, corn export inspections have averaged 57.8 million bushels per week, totaling 201 million bushels. This compares to an average of 36.6 million bushels per week and a total of 132 million bushels during the same period last year. Key export destinations this week included Mexico, Japan, and South Korea.

US soybean export inspections

Soybean export inspections came in at 21.8 million bushels last week, nearly unchanged from the previous week’s 20.8 million bushels and below the four-week average of 22.5 million bushels. The current average for the first four weeks of the 2025/26 marketing year stands at 22.5 million bushels per week, slightly ahead of last year’s 18.6 million bushels per week for the same period. Last week’s inspections were within market expectations, which ranged from 16.5 – 33.1 million bushels. Cumulative inspections now total 83 million bushels, compared to 71 million bushels at the same point last year. To meet the USDA’s export projection of 1.685 billion bushels, weekly inspections will need to average approximately 32.1 million bushels/week. Top export destinations for the week included Germany, Japan, Turkey, and Italy.

Market Headlines:

US-India trade negotiations update:

US negotiators met with their Indian counterparts last week to continue trade discussions. The talks were described as constructive, though no significant progress was made. The U.S. has pushed for India to halt purchases of Russian oil as a condition for advancing a new trade agreement; however, India has indicated it does not intend to change its oil trade relationship with Russia. In response, India has offered limited concessions, including the potential purchase of U.S. corn for ethanol production.

The USDA quarterly Grain Stocks report – due tomorrow:

The USDA is scheduled to release its quarterly Grain Stocks report on Tuesday. Traders expect September 1 corn stocks will be 24% lower than the same period last year. Soybean stocks are expected to be down 5.6%, while wheat stocks are projected to increase by 2.6%. Notably, there is some variation between pre-report trade estimates and the USDA’s most recent projections for old crop corn and wheat carryouts.

Brazilian soybean planting progress:

Brazil’s soybean planting season is off to a strong start. Farmers have planted 4.2% of the soybean crop, which is up 3.5% from last week, according to Patria Agronegocios. Favorable weather and consistent rainfall have contributed to what is reportedly the fastest start to planting on record.

Upcoming Reports:

• Tuesday – 9.30.2025: Grain Stocks at 11:00 am CST
• Wednesday – 10.01.2025: EIA Ethanol Production at 9:30 am CST
• Thursday – 10.02.2025: Export Sales at 7:30 am CST

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