DeLong Commentary

CBOT:

Corn finished the session mixed, with nearby contracts posting modest gains. The Mar26 contract gained 2.75 cents to close at $4.3325. May26 futures added 1.5 cents to settle at $4.435, while the Jul26 contract ended 1 cent higher at $4.5125.

Soybeans traded higher overnight before quickly retreating following the release of a South China Morning Post article (read more below). The initial reaction pressured prices, but the market recovered much of the decline into the close. The Mar26 contract slipped 0.5 cents to $11.4725, while May26 futures finished 1.5 cents lower at $11.635.

Market Headlines:

Soybeans retreated following a South China Morning Post report that highlighted analyst concerns about limited preparation for a potential Trump-Xi summit:

The South China Morning Post cited analysts and former officials who argued that limited US coordination could reduce the likelihood of meaningful deliverables. However, no new policy actions, tariff changes, or confirmed adjustments to trade negotiations were announced.

The market reaction appeared driven by headline risk and renewed uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade relationship rather than any material development.

Reuters reports the Trump Administration is preparing a plan to require large oil refiners to cover greater than 50% waived biofuel obligations:

The administration has reportedly developed a plan that would require large oil refiners to cover at least half of the biofuel blending obligations previously waived under the Small Refinery Exemption program. While large refiners argue that additional blending requirements would raise compliance costs, the shift would likely increase demand for Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) and provide support to the biofuels industry through stronger credit demand.

Weekly Export Sales:

(week ended 2.19.26)

US corn export sales totaled 26.99 million bushels, below market expectations of 35.4–70.9 million bushels. Sales fell 53.33% from the previous week’s 57.85 million bushels and declined 13.73% from the same week last year, when sales reached 31.29 million bushels. Total corn export commitments now stand at 2.48 billion bushels, 29.45% above the 1.915 billion bushels reported at this time last year. However, that year-over-year advantage has narrowed in recent weeks as last year’s export pace accelerated during the February–June period. The largest increases came from Mexico, Japan, Morocco, Colombia, and Algeria.

US soybean export sales totaled 14.95 million bushels, landing at the bottom end of market expectations of 14.69–36.74 million bushels. Sales declined from the previous week’s 29.33 million bushels and marked the second-lowest total of the 2025/26 marketing year to date. Total soybean export commitments now reach 1.310 billion bushels, down 18.78% from 1.613 billion bushels at the same point last year. The largest increases were reported for Egypt, Germany, China, Indonesia, and Japan.

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