Grain Market Commentary 2/25/26
CBOT:
Corn closed in the green, marking its highest close in a week despite the absence of fresh fundamental news. The Mar26 contract gained 2.75 cents to settle at $4.305. May26 futures rose 3.5 cents to $4.42, while Jul26 added 2.75 cents, closing at $4.5025.
Soybeans traded 5-10 cents higher, finding support from reports that the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) proposal was set to be sent to the White House today. The Mar26 contract closed 8.75 cents higher at $11.4825, and May26 futures gained 9.75 cents to settle at $11.65.
Market Headlines:
State of the Union Address
During the 2026 State of the Union Address, President Trump declared that America has entered a “golden age.” He stated that inflation has declined, gas prices and mortgage rates have eased, the stock market has reached record highs, and job levels are at historic marks.
The president emphasized stricter border enforcement, a halt to illegal immigration, and reductions in fentanyl trafficking and crime. He called for tougher immigration laws, voter ID requirements, and an end to sanctuary cities.
In addition, President Trump outlined several major policy initiatives, including large tax cuts, eliminating taxes on tips and overtime pay, creating child investment “Trump Accounts,” using tariffs to strengthen domestic industry, lowering prescription drug prices, increasing healthcare transparency, and launching what he described as a “war on fraud” to reduce government waste.
On foreign policy, the president cited efforts to end multiple international conflicts, secure hostage releases, and intensify action against drug cartels. He reiterated plans to rebuild the U.S. military and promote “peace through strength.”
Throughout the address, President Trump honored military service members, law enforcement officers, crime victims, and private citizens. He concluded by looking ahead to the 250th anniversary of American independence, portraying the United States as strong, unified, and positioned for continued achievement.
Tariff Update:
The Trump administration launched a 150-day global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The temporary tariff is set at 10%, with plans to increase the rate to 15% for certain countries. However, no formal order has been signed to implement the higher rate.
US Trade Representative Greer confirmed that the administration is moving forward with new trade investigations covering both existing and future trade agreements. The process will include publication in the Federal Register, public hearings, and consultations. Officials plan to focus on excess industrial capacity, forced labor, and discriminatory trade practices affecting the United States. The findings will help determine the level of harm to US interests and whether current agreements require modifications.
The United States will be engaging Canada and Mexico under the USMCA framework.
Weekly EIA Ethanol Data:
(week ended 2.20.26)
US ethanol production totaled 1.113 million barrels per day, down slightly from the previous week’s 1.118 million barrels per day but within market expectations of 1.088–1.200 million barrels per day. Production was 2.96% above the same week last year’s 1.084 million barrels per day, consistent with the prior two weeks’ year-over-year gains of 3.14% and 2.59%. Averaging four of the past five weeks, excluding the severe cold snap that significantly disrupted output, production averaged 1.114 million barrels per day.
US ethanol stocks came in at 25.646 million barrels, within market expectations of 25.500–26.200 million barrels and up from the previous week’s 25.588 million barrels. The increase reflects the typical seasonal build in inventories. Stocks remain 6.98% below last year’s level of 27.571 million barrels and 1.44% below the same week in 2024, when stocks totaled 26.022 million barrels.
US ethanol exports averaged 141,000 barrels per day, down 20.34% from the prior week’s 177,000 barrels per day and below the four-week average of 168,000 barrels per day. However, exports were well above the 115,000 barrels per day recorded during the same week last year. The four-week average is running 32.02% above the same period last year’s average of 127,250 barrels per day.
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