Grain Market Commentary 2/20/26
CBOT:
Corn posted modest gains of 1-4 cents but still finished the week down less than 1%. The Mar26 contract gained 1.75 cents to settle at $4.275. May26 futures rose 3.5 cents to $4.3975. Jul26 added 3.75 cents, closing at $4.4825.
Soybeans closed 0-4 cents lower, with nearby contracts leading the decline. Beans traded higher early in the session on news of the US-Indonesia trade agreement but reversed course after the Supreme Court released its ruling on President Trump’s tariffs (see details below). Beans pared losses into the close. Mar26 futures lost 3.5 cents on the day, closing at $11.375 after trading nearly 20 cents lower mid-morning. The May26 contract slipped 2.75 cents to $11.5325.
Market Headlines:
The US and Indonesia finalized a trade deal:
The agreement reduces US levies on Indonesian goods from 32% to 19% and exempts palm oil, coffee, and cocoa. In return, Indonesia has committed to purchase $4.5 billion in US agricultural products, including soybeans, wheat, and cotton, and to invest $10 billion in US engineering, procurement, and construction projects.
The agreement also includes several additional provisions. Indonesia will limit excess production by foreign-owned mineral processing facilities – targeting Chinese offshore production. It has also agreed to take action against companies operating within its jurisdiction but owned or controlled by foreign entities when their practices may adversely affect US trade interests. In addition, Indonesia will support US investment in critical minerals and energy resources and will work with US companies to accelerate development of its rare-earth sector.
The US Supreme Court rules against Trump tariffs:
The Supreme Court ruled against the use of global tariffs enacted under a federal law intended for national emergencies. The tariffs were imposed broadly on US trading partners through emergency powers authorized by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.
The Constitution grants Congress the authority to impose taxes and tariffs. In this case, the tariffs were implemented under the IEEPA, which allows the president to regulate commerce during a declared national emergency, without prior congressional approval. On Friday, the Supreme Court upheld a lower court’s decision, finding that Trump’s use of the IEEPA in this context exceeded the scope of his presidential authority.
Additional ‘Trump’ tariffs have been imposed under other legal authorities and were not included in this ruling. Those measures account for roughly one-third of the total revenue generated from the tariffs enacted during this period.
Following the ruling, President Trump held a press conference announcing plans to impose a 10% global tariff for 150 days to replace the tariffs struck down earlier in the day. The administration intends to implement the tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which authorizes the president to impose tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days on countries with “large and serious” balance of payments imbalances without requiring a formal investigation. Additionally, the administration will initiate Section 301 investigations into alleged unfair trade practices.
USDA Export Sales:
(week ended 2.12.26)
US corn export sales totaled 57.85 million bushels, falling within market expectations of 23.6 to 86.6 million bushels. Sales declined 29% from last week’s strong total of 81.48 million bushels but were roughly in line with the same week last year, when sales reached 57.2 million bushels.
Total corn export commitments now stand at 2.452 billion bushels, compared with 1.885 billion bushels at this time last year. This represents a 30.01% increase year over year. However, the gap has narrowed in recent weeks as last year’s sales accelerated during the February–June period. The largest increases in commitments were reported for Japan, Mexico, Taiwan, Colombia, and Costa Rica.
US soybean export sales totaled 29.3 million bushels, rising from last week’s marketing-year low of 10.035 million bushels. The figure came in within market expectations of 13.8 to 44.1 million bushels.
Total soybean export commitments are now 1.300 billion bushels, which is 19% below the year-ago level of 1.598 billion bushels. In recent weeks, the deficit has narrowed as the current sales pace continues to run ahead of last year’s pace. The largest increases were primarily for China, Egypt, Japan, Costa Rica, and Indonesia.
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