Grain Market Commentary 2/2/26
CBOT Pricing:
Corn closed 1–3 cents lower amid limited fresh news, while outside markets drew greater attention. The Mar26 contract ended the session 2.5 cents lower at $4.2575. May26 and Jul26 futures finished 2.25 cents lower at $4.335 and $4.3975, respectively. Losses weighed more heavily on nearby contracts, leading to weaker spreads. The overall trend remains sideways.
Soybeans traded 4–5 cents lower as export inspections, though strong, met market expectations and the Brazilian soybean harvest continues. The Mar26 contract settled at $10.6025, down 4.0 cents, while the May26 contract closed 4.5 cents lower at $10.725.
Market Headlines:
US-India trade developments:
The US and India reached a preliminary trade deal this week. Under the agreement, India will shift oil purchases away from Russia and instead source crude from the US and Venezuela. In return, US tariffs on Indian goods will be reduced from 25% to 18%.
Rising US-Iran tensions:
Tensions between the US and Iran continue to escalate, with Iran warning that a regional conflict could occur if the US launches an attack. President Trump has increased pressure on the country following Iran’s crackdown on anti-government protests. According to the Human Rights Activist News Agency, more than 6,800 verified deaths have occurred since protests began in December.
In late January, President Trump appeared to scale back military threats after Iran assured it would halt protester executions. However, Trump later issued new warnings, including the potential deployment of additional US warships if Iran fails to reach a nuclear weapons agreement. Several US warships are currently positioned in the region in an effort to encourage negotiations.
US government shutdown update:
US House leadership expects the current partial government shutdown to end quickly. The shutdown began after certain funding bills expired on January 30 without new approval. Disagreements over Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding led Senate Democrats to withhold support until cuts and/or reforms to ICE are addressed.
President Trump reached an agreement with senators to separate immigration disputes from the broader funding package by removing DHS from the bill and extending its funding for two weeks to allow additional negotiations. House Speaker Mike Johnson said he is hopeful work can be completed for a full House vote as early as Tuesday.
Brazilian soybean harvest is underway:
Brazil’s soybean harvest continues to progress slowly. According to Safras, the harvest advanced just 1.8% over the past week, bringing total completion to 8.2%. This compares to 7.6% at the same time last year but remains below the five-year average of 10.3%.
Harvest activity is primarily concentrated in Mato Grosso and Paraná, where progress stands at 22% and 17% complete, respectively.
Weekly Export Inspections:
(week ended 1.29.26)
US corn export inspections totaled 44.74 million bushels, in line with market expectations of 35.4–55.1 million bushels. This figure was down from last week’s 60.91 million bushels and 9.9% below the same week last year at 49.64 million bushels. Over the past four weeks, corn export inspections have averaged 55.8 million bushels per week, compared to 54.1 million bushels during the same period last year. Cumulative bushels are now 1.28 billion bushels compared to the same week last year of 856.7 million bushels. Cumulative bushels are up 49.85% year-over-year, but this figure is slowly reducing as corn export inspections rapidly increased and averaged 61.3 million bushels/week from mid-January to late June of the 2024/2025 marketing year, after a slow start. Top export destinations this last week were Japan, Mexico, and Colombia.
US soybean export inspections came in at 48.15 million bushels, near the upper end of market expectations of 22.0–51.4 million bushels. This was slightly below last week’s 49.10 million bushels but above the same week last year at 41.90 million bushels. Over the past four weeks, soybean inspections have averaged 51.3 million bushels per week, compared to 38.8 million bushels during the same period last year, supported by Chinese purchases outside of the typical seasonal window. Cumulative soybean inspections now total 808.04 million bushels, which remains 35.7% below last year’s same-week total of 1.26 billion bushels. Top destinations this week were China, Egypt, and Mexico.
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