Grain Market Commentary 2/19/26
CBOT:
Corn closed mixed, with nearby contracts finishing 0-2 cents lower. The Mar26 contract fell 1.25 cents to close at $4.2575. May26 futures slipped 0.5 cents to $4.3625, while Jul26 futures edged 0.25 cents lower to settle at $4.445.
Soybeans closed 2-7.5 cents higher, led by gains in the nearby contracts. The Mar26 contract rallied 7.5 cents to $11.41. May26 futures added 7 cents to close at $11.56. The Nov26 contract gained 1.75 cents, settling at $11.1825.
Market Headlines:
USDA Ag Outlook Forum:
The USDA will host its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia, on Thursday, February 19th and Friday, February 20th. The event brings together farmers, industry stakeholders, policymakers, and analysts to review the latest economic data and agricultural trends. More than 80 experts from government, academia, and the private sector will present on a range of topics, including commodity price forecasts, trade, MAHA, biofuels, artificial intelligence, and animal disease mitigation. Key speakers will include USDA Chief Economist Justin Benavidez and Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins.
USDA plantings projections for the 2026/2027 crop:
At the Forum, the USDA released its initial 2026/2027 projections for acreage, yields, ending stocks, and average farm prices.
The USDA projects corn planted acreage at 94.0 million acres, down from 98.788 million acres last year and at the low end of trade expectations ranging from 94.0 to 96.8 million acres. The agency estimates soybean planted acreage at 85.0 million acres, up from 81.215 million acres last year and within the range of market expectations between 83.5 and 86.0 million acres.
The USDA projects 2026/2027 corn ending stocks at 1.837 billion bushels, within the trade range of 1.736 to 2.170 billion bushels. For soybeans, the agency estimates ending stocks at 355 million bushels, also within the market range of 250 to 440 million bushels.
The Outlook Forum estimates place 2026/2027 corn yield at 183 bushels per acre, compared to last year’s record yield of 186.5 bushels per acre. The USDA projects soybean yield at 53.0 bushels per acre.
Weekly EIA Energy Data:
(week ended 2.13.26)
US ethanol production averaged 1.118 million barrels per day, up from the prior week’s 1.110 million barrels per day and at the upper end of market expectations ranging from 1.050 to 1.120 million barrels per day. Production increased 3.13% from the same week last year’s 1.084 million barrels per day and exceeded the 4-week average of 1.074 million barrels per day. The 4-week average has seen large changes in production due to severe cold weather in late January.
US ethanol stocks totaled 25.588 million barrels, slightly above the previous week’s 25.247 million barrels and within trade expectations of 25.100 to 25.840 million barrels. Over the past four weeks, stocks averaged 25.343 million barrels, about 1% below this week’s level. Stocks remain 2.4% below the same week last year. Seasonally, inventories typically build through March before declining as summer fuel demand increases.
US ethanol exports averaged 177,000 barrels per day, up from last week’s 137,000 barrels per day and above the 4-week average of 171,750 barrels per day. Exports rose 28.26% from the same week last year, when they averaged 138,000 barrels per day.
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