Grain Market Commentary 2/18/26
CBOT:
Corn closed 0-1 cent higher but failed to recover the prior session’s losses. The Mar26 contract traded within a narrow 3.25 cent range and settled ¾ of a cent higher at $4.27. May26 futures gained 1 cent to close at $4.3675. Jul26 futures finished ½ cent higher at $4.4475.
Soybeans traded both sides of unchanged and ended the session mixed. Mar26 futures slipped ½ cent to close at $11.335. The May26 contract added ¼ cent, settling at $11.49. Nov26 futures declined 1 cent to finish at $11.165.
Market Headlines:
The US EPA plans to send the proposed 2026 biofuel blending quotas to the White House this week:
The Environmental Protection Agency plans to submit its proposed 2026 renewable fuel blending mandates to the White House for final review this week. The White House typically takes about 30 days to review a proposal before releasing it publicly. However, the administration aims to finalize the biofuel blending mandates by the end of March.
Reports indicate the EPA is weighing biomass-based diesel blending volumes between 5.2 and 5.6 billion gallons for 2026. This range falls slightly below the previously proposed 5.61 billion gallons but remains well above the 2025 mandate of 3.35 billion gallons.
A Reuters poll shows US farmers may favor corn over soybeans in 2026:
Ahead of the USDA’s annual Outlook Forum, Reuters surveyed analysts for 2026 acreage projections. The poll places corn plantings at 94.9 million acres. Although that would mark a 4% decline from last year’s 89-year high, it would still rank among the largest acreage totals on record. Analysts project soybean plantings at 84.9 million acres, up from 81 million last year and roughly in line with the 10-year average.
Frayne Olson, an agricultural economist at North Dakota State University, said current market signals do not justify a sharp reduction in corn acres, though the market would likely welcome a modest cut. While producers harvested a record 17+ billion bushels of corn in 2025, strong export demand has absorbed a portion of the large supply. Record export sales continue to provide underlying support to the corn market.
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