Grain Market Commentary 2/10/26
CBOT Pricing:
Corn finished unchanged to modestly higher. The Mar26 contract closed unchanged at $4.2875. May26 futures settled 0.25 cents higher at $4.3725, while the Jul26 contract ended 1.25 cents higher at $4.4475.
Soybeans extended last week’s rally amid continued expectations for Chinese export demand and supportive fund positioning. The Mar26 contract gained 12.5 cents to close at $11.225, while May26 futures added 13.0 cents to finish at $11.375.
Market Headlines:
Brazil is scrutinizing US-Argentina trade deal amid Mercosur rules:
Brazilian officials are reviewing the recently announced US–Argentina trade agreement to assess whether it exceeds the limits Mercosur places on bilateral trade deals among member countries. Mercosur restricts the scope of individual agreements in order to preserve the bloc’s collective negotiating power. Argentine officials state the tariff reductions fall with the list of 150 exceptions that Argentina is entitled to. Brazilian officials, however, argue that the agreement goes beyond those allowances.
USDA announces the completion of the sterile fly facility in Texas:
US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins and Texas Governor Greg Abbott announced the completion of a sterile fly facility in Edinburg, Texas. The facility expands the existing network across Central America and Mexico and marks a step forward in efforts to combat New World Screwworm. Initial dispersal of sterile flies will occur from the Tampico, Mexico facility. The USDA said it is prepared to shift operations to the Texas facility if screwworm concentrations move into northern Mexico, in order to protect the US cattle herd.
USDA WASDE Report:
The USDA released its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report at 11:00 a.m. CST today. As expected, the report generated limited market volatility. The USDA left the US soybean balance sheet unchanged, while corn posted one of the more notable revisions in the report. The agency also made some adjustments to the global balance sheet.
Corn: The USDA raised US corn export projections for the 2025/26 marketing year by 100 million bushels to 3.3 billion bushels, citing continued strong foreign demand supported by export sales and inspections data. The agency now expects shipments from September through January to exceed 1.3 billion bushels. With demand revised higher and supply unchanged, the USDA lowered projected US corn ending stocks by 100 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels.
On the global balance sheet, the USDA increased corn export projections for the US and reduced them for Ukraine. The agency lowered import estimates for the EU while raising them for Mexico, Vietnam, Iran, Turkey, and Lebanon. As a result, global corn ending stocks were adjusted to 113.77 billion bushels.
Soybeans: The USDA made no changes to the US soybean supply and demand balance sheet this month.
Globally, the USDA revised both supply and demand estimates, including production, crush, and ending stocks. The agency raised production and crush estimates for Brazil and Paraguay. Higher Brazilian production reflects increased harvested acreage and improved yields. The USDA also increased crush projections for both countries due to stronger soybean meal demand, led by the EU. The agency noted that any increase in US soybean purchases by China would likely shift demand from other origins, limiting the need for adjustments to global soybean import demand. Global soybean ending stocks increased to 4.61 billion bushels.
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