DeLong Commentary

CBOT Pricing:

Corn settled 2-5 cents higher after the USDA raised US corn export projection, which in turn lowered ending stocks. The Mar26 contract closed at $4.48, up 4.25 cents. The May26 and Jul26 contracts also gained 4.25 cents, settling at $4.555 and $4.61, respectively.

Soybeans extended their decline, finishing 6-8 cents lower. The USDA’s WASDE report included no revisions to the US balance sheet. The Jan26 contract closed at $10.8725, down 6.5 cents, and the Mar26 contract ended at $10.9825, 7.5 cents lower.

Market Headlines:

President Trump released details on $12 billion farmer aid package:

President Trump released details of a $12 billion farm aid package. Treasury Secretary Bessent described the program as a “liquidity bridge during a period of adjustment,” intended to support farmers until benefits from trade policies materialize. Funded by tariff revenues, the one-time bridge payment aims to provide farmers with greater certainty as they bring this year’s harvest to market and plan for next year’s crop.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins stated that $11 billion will be directed to row-crop producers, with payments scheduled for disbursement by February 28. Eligible farmers are encouraged to ensure their 2025 acreage reporting is accurate by 5 p.m. EST on December 19. The remaining $1 billion will be allocated to fruit, vegetable, and other crop producers, with details forthcoming.

Commodity-specific payment rates are expected later this month.

Argentina lowered export taxes on soybeans/grains:

Argentina announced reductions in export taxes on soybeans and grains Tuesday morning. Soybean export taxes will decrease to 24% from 26%, while corn and sorghum taxes will fall from 9.5% to 8.5%. This will likely result in higher prices for farmers and could encourage farmer selling.

Following the announcement, soybean futures fell 7 cents before making a minor recovering into the morning break. Corn futures declined 4 cents on the news.

POTUS urges agricultural equipment manufacturers to lower prices:

During the aid package announcement, President Trump urged agricultural equipment manufacturers to reduce tractor prices. He attributed elevated costs to environmental regulations, and the administration plans to remove certain regulations in an effort to support lower equipment prices.

USDA December WASDE:

The December WASDE report delivered few notable changes, as expected, and updates were limited to the demand side of the balance sheet.

The USDA raised US corn export projections to 3.2 billion bushels, an increase of 125 million bushels. The adjustment reflects the strong foreign demand during the September–November period. Supply estimates were unchanged. As a result, projected US corn ending stocks decreased by 125 million bushels to 2.029 billion. The season-average farm price remained steady at $4.00 per bushel. Global corn ending stocks rose due to higher estimates for Argentina, partially offset by reductions for Ukraine and Canada.

US soybean supply, use, and price projections were unchanged. The 2025/26 global soybean outlook featured higher production, increased crush, larger ending stocks, and reduced exports. Global soybean production was estimated at 422.5 million tons, up 0.8 million tons, with gains in Russia and India partly offset by lower output in Canada and Ukraine. Global soybean ending stocks increased 0.4 million tons to 122.4 million, driven by higher stocks in Brazil and Russia.

US Corn and Soybean, Supply and Use Domestic Measure

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